One measure, in full · Usage: what holds
Target share
Definition
One definition, the column that binds its range, and what the figure is a share of.
lag-1 autocorrelation of a player's weekly deviation from his own season mean; 0 means this week's surprise says nothing about next week's
usage_stability.within_lag1.target_share
- Source
pbp; n counts independent players- Bound column
- starts 2009: pbp.receiver_player_id|incomplete_pass is not usable before it
- Columns it reads
pbp.receiver_player_id|incomplete_pass- Denominator
- The team's total: teammates split one denominator.
- Season range
- Current 2009–2026. Current. Its inputs cover 2009 to 2026 and reach the season in progress.
- Refreshed
- This file was generated Tue, Oct 27, 9:33 AM ET. It does not state a refresh schedule.
Distribution
No distribution: the file is one figure for the whole league, not a value per player.
Does it carry?
No: the interval sits wholly left of zero, so a week above his own average is not followed by another.
Week-to-week carry-over
r = −0.014
[−0.024, −0.003] · n = 1,540 · 63,481 rows
Doesn’t carry over- Target sharethis measure−0.014 [−0.024, −0.003]
- Carry sharefor contrast0.24 [0.22, 0.26]
- Receptionsfor contrast−0.04 [−0.05, −0.03]
Target share, among usage stats
55% of the variation in target share sits between player-seasons (interval 53% to 57%, 1,540 players).
The share of all the variation in the stat that is differences between player-seasons, rather than a player's own swings from week to week.
- Carries66%
- Carry share73%
- Reception share44%
- Receptions42%
- Target share55%
- Targets51%
analytics/nfl/usage_stability.between.target_share.json · generated Tue, Oct 27, 9:33 AM ET
This stat, all three ways
| Measure | Estimate | Interval | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week to week | −0.01 | −0.02 to −0.003 | 1,540 players |
| Between players | 55% | 53% to 57% | 1,540 players |
| Naive | 0.53 | 0.51 to 0.55 | 1,540 players |
How it is measured
- Week to week
- lag-1 autocorrelation of a player's weekly deviation from his own season mean; 0 means this week's surprise says nothing about next week's
- Between players
- share of total variance sitting between player-seasons rather than within them; high means the metric separates players
- Naive
- pooled lag-1 correlation of raw weekly values across all players; high because good players are high every week, which is why it is published beside the demeaned figure rather than instead of it
- Interval
- Interval from resampling players with replacement, 2,000 times. Built at 95%.
- Sample
- n counts independent players, never weekly rows (63,481 weekly rows from those 1,540).
Leaderboard
No leaderboard: the file is one league-wide figure, not a value per player.
What the file does and does not say
Four limits, stated plainly.
- Interval from resampling players with replacement, 2,000 times. Built at 95%. That coverage is nominal: this page does not check it against outcomes.
- n counts 1,540 independent players, not the 63,481 rows behind them. Rows inside one player share a context, so counting them as the sample would draw the interval too narrow.
- It covers 2009 to 2026, and says why in the producer's words: starts 2009: pbp.receiver_player_id|incomplete_pass is not usable before it.
- It is one figure for the whole league, pooled. It does not say what any one player does, and it does not split by position. A share of a team total: teammates split one denominator, so two teammates' intervals side by side are not two independent estimates.