calibrated SPORTS
NFLAnalyticsOpportunity residualRushing Yards

One measure, in full · Opportunity residual

Production beyond opportunity: rushing yards

Opportunity residual

Not published
Week-to-week carry-over
−111 – 125
Range of values
125
Highest estimate, shared
19 intervals reach it · players active in 2026
n = 42
Values in the opening slice

Definition

One definition, the column that binds its range, and what the figure is a share of.

rushing yards over the season minus what his carries predicted, SUMMED over his games, so it grows with games played - band or rank on opportunity_residual.per_game.rushing_yards instead; the interval resamples his games and is conditional on the fitted line

opportunity_residual.rushing_yards

Source
pbp; n counts independent games
Bound column
the whole archive, 1999-2026; no input binds it; fit rushing yards ~ carries, OLS per season x position group over player-weeks; R^2 RB median 0.743 (0.684-0.800, 28 seasons); QB median 0.617 (0.434-0.722, 28 seasons); position group is the player's CURRENT nflverse position applied to every season, not as-of; QB kneel-downs (nflverse qb_kneel) are excluded from both sides of the fit - 9457 kneel plays removed (RB 4, QB 9453 by position group); SUMMED, so it scales with games: |value| against games played r 0.42 over 3785 player-seasons (per game: |value| against games played r 0.15 over 3785 player-seasons)
Columns it reads
pbp.rusher_player_id|rush_attempt, weekly_stats.position
Denominator
Not a share: the figure has no denominator it splits with anyone.
Season range
Current 1999–2026. Current. Its inputs cover 1999 to 2026 and reach the season in progress.
Slices
season|position_group; the page opens on 2025|QB
Refreshed
This file was generated Tue, Oct 27, 9:32 AM ET. It does not state a refresh schedule.

Distribution

The middle half sits between −23 and 21.

Production beyond opportunity: rushing yards, 2025|QB · N = 42 with at least 5 games · 1999–2026

−120 to −100: 1−100 to −80: 0−80 to −60: 2−60 to −40: 3−40 to −20: 6−20 to 0: 100 to 20: 920 to 40: 540 to 60: 360 to 80: 180 to 100: 0100 to 120: 1120 to 140: 1

Darker bars: 20 and up, 11 of 42 values, 26% of them.

Does it carry?

No week-to-week carry-over is published for this measure. Its file holds a value per player with its interval; whether a week above average carries into the next is not in it.

Loading Production beyond opportunity: rushing yards…

What the file does and does not say

Four limits, stated plainly.

  1. Interval from resampling games with replacement, 2,000 times. Built at 95%. That coverage is nominal: this page does not check it against outcomes.
  2. n counts independent games, never rows. A value resting on fewer than 5 games is shown muted in the table and not read: it is left out of the range and the leaders.
  3. It covers 1999 to 2026, and says why in the producer's words: the whole archive, 1999-2026; no input binds it; fit rushing yards ~ carries, OLS per season x position group over player-weeks; R^2 RB median 0.743 (0.684-0.800, 28 seasons); QB median 0.617 (0.434-0.722, 28 seasons); position group is the player's CURRENT nflverse position applied to every season, not as-of; QB kneel-downs (nflverse qb_kneel) are excluded from both sides of the fit - 9457 kneel plays removed (RB 4, QB 9453 by position group); SUMMED, so it scales with games: |value| against games played r 0.42 over 3785 player-seasons (per game: |value| against games played r 0.15 over 3785 player-seasons).
  4. It has values for 1,009 players. One with no row in the file has no value here, which is not a value of zero.