One measure, in full · Next Gen Stats: what holds · Passing
Expected completion %
Definition
One definition, the column that binds its range, and what the figure is a share of.
lag-1 autocorrelation of the player's weekly deviation from his own season mean
ngs_stability.within_lag1.passing.expected_completion_percentage
- Source
ngs; n counts independent players- Bound column
- starts 2016: ngs (first season on the release, measured in f_ngs_week) is not usable before it
- Denominator
- The subject's own total: no one else shares it.
- Season range
- Current 2016–2026. Current. Its inputs cover 2016 to 2026 and reach the season in progress.
- Refreshed
- This file was generated Tue, Oct 27, 9:32 AM ET. It does not state a refresh schedule.
Distribution
No distribution: the file is one figure for the whole league, not a value per player.
Does it carry?
No: the interval sits wholly left of zero, so a week above his own average is not followed by another.
Week-to-week carry-over
r = −0.07
[−0.09, −0.04] · n = 96 · 4,670 rows
Doesn’t carry over- Expected completion %this measure−0.07 [−0.09, −0.04]
- Time to throwfor contrast0.02 [−0.01, 0.06]
- Completion % above expectationfor contrast−0.08 [−0.11, −0.05]
Expected completion %, among passing stats
Expected completion %: r −0.07 week to week (interval −0.09 to −0.04, 96 players). A week above his own average does not carry into the next.
Whether a player's week above his own season average is followed by another: the correlation of each week's deviation from his own mean with the next week's. An interval wholly above zero carries; one that reaches zero, or sits under it, does not.
- Aggressiveness−0.06
- Average air distance−0.04
- Air yards past the sticks−0.05
- Time to throw0.02
- Completion % above expectation−0.08
- Expected completion %−0.07
- Longest air distance−0.07
analytics/nfl/ngs_stability.within_lag1.passing.expected_completion_percentage.json · generated Tue, Oct 27, 9:32 AM ET
This stat, all three ways
| Measure | Estimate | Interval | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week to week | −0.07 | −0.09 to −0.04 | 96 players |
| Between players | 22% | 19% to 25% | 96 players |
| Naive | 0.17 | 0.13 to 0.21 | 96 players |
How it is measured
- Week to week
- lag-1 autocorrelation of the player's weekly deviation from his own season mean
- Between players
- share of variance between player-seasons
- Naive
- pooled lag-1 correlation of raw weekly values
- Interval
- Interval from resampling players with replacement, 2,000 times. Built at 95%.
- Sample
- n counts independent players, never weekly rows (4,670 weekly rows from those 96).
Leaderboard
No leaderboard: the file is one league-wide figure, not a value per player.
What the file does and does not say
Four limits, stated plainly.
- Interval from resampling players with replacement, 2,000 times. Built at 95%. That coverage is nominal: this page does not check it against outcomes.
- n counts 96 independent players, not the 4,670 rows behind them. Rows inside one player share a context, so counting them as the sample would draw the interval too narrow.
- It covers 2016 to 2026, and says why in the producer's words: starts 2016: ngs (first season on the release, measured in f_ngs_week) is not usable before it.
- It is one figure for the whole league, pooled. It does not say what any one player does, and it does not split by position.