calibrated SPORTS
NFLAnalyticsOpportunity residualReceptions

One measure, in full · Opportunity residual

Production beyond opportunity: receptions

Opportunity residual

Not published
Week-to-week carry-over
−5.3 – 6.5
Range of values
6.5
Highest estimate, shared
70 intervals reach it · players active in 2026
n = 83
Values in the opening slice

Definition

One definition, the column that binds its range, and what the figure is a share of.

receptions over the season minus what his targets predicted, SUMMED over his games, so it grows with games played - band or rank on opportunity_residual.per_game.receptions instead; the interval resamples his games and is conditional on the fitted line

opportunity_residual.receptions

Source
pbp; n counts independent games
Bound column
starts 2009: pbp.receiver_player_id|incomplete_pass is not usable before it; fit receptions ~ targets, OLS per season x position group over player-weeks; R^2 WR median 0.777 (0.724-0.816, 18 seasons); TE median 0.806 (0.779-0.856, 18 seasons); RB median 0.824 (0.804-0.872, 18 seasons); position group is the player's CURRENT nflverse position applied to every season, not as-of; SUMMED, so it scales with games: |value| against games played r 0.40 over 5746 player-seasons (per game: |value| against games played r 0.08 over 5746 player-seasons)
Columns it reads
pbp.receiver_player_id|incomplete_pass, pbp.receiver_player_id|complete_pass, weekly_stats.position
Denominator
Not a share: the figure has no denominator it splits with anyone.
Season range
Current 2009–2026. Current. Its inputs cover 2009 to 2026 and reach the season in progress.
Slices
season|position_group; the page opens on 2025|RB
Refreshed
This file was generated Tue, Oct 27, 9:32 AM ET. It does not state a refresh schedule.

Distribution

The middle half sits between −1.5 and 1.7.

Production beyond opportunity: receptions, 2025|RB · N = 83 with at least 5 games · 2009–2026

−6.0 to −5.0: 2−5.0 to −4.0: 2−4.0 to −3.0: 3−3.0 to −2.0: 10−2.0 to −1.0: 12−1.0 to 0.0: 150.0 to 1.0: 81.0 to 2.0: 142.0 to 3.0: 93.0 to 4.0: 34.0 to 5.0: 35.0 to 6.0: 16.0 to 7.0: 1

Darker bars: 2.0 and up, 17 of 83 values, the top fifth (20%).

Does it carry?

No week-to-week carry-over is published for this measure. Its file holds a value per player with its interval; whether a week above average carries into the next is not in it.

Loading Production beyond opportunity: receptions…

What the file does and does not say

Four limits, stated plainly.

  1. Interval from resampling games with replacement, 2,000 times. Built at 95%. That coverage is nominal: this page does not check it against outcomes.
  2. n counts independent games, never rows. A value resting on fewer than 5 games is shown muted in the table and not read: it is left out of the range and the leaders.
  3. It covers 2009 to 2026, and says why in the producer's words: starts 2009: pbp.receiver_player_id|incomplete_pass is not usable before it; fit receptions ~ targets, OLS per season x position group over player-weeks; R^2 WR median 0.777 (0.724-0.816, 18 seasons); TE median 0.806 (0.779-0.856, 18 seasons); RB median 0.824 (0.804-0.872, 18 seasons); position group is the player's CURRENT nflverse position applied to every season, not as-of; SUMMED, so it scales with games: |value| against games played r 0.40 over 5746 player-seasons (per game: |value| against games played r 0.08 over 5746 player-seasons).
  4. It has values for 1,631 players. One with no row in the file has no value here, which is not a value of zero.