calibrated SPORTS
NFLAnalyticsOpportunity residualPer Game Rushing Tds

One measure, in full · Opportunity residual

Production beyond opportunity per game: rushing TDs

Opportunity residual

Not published
Week-to-week carry-over
−0.28 – 0.45
Range of values
0.45
Highest estimate, shared
30 intervals reach it · players active in 2026
n = 42
Values in the opening slice

Definition

One definition, the column that binds its range, and what the figure is a share of.

rushing TDs minus what his carries predicted, per game played over the season (the summed residual divided by his games); the interval resamples his games and is conditional on the fitted line

opportunity_residual.per_game.rushing_tds

Source
weekly_stats; n counts independent games
Bound column
the whole archive, 1999-2026; no input binds it; fit rushing TDs ~ carries, OLS per season x position group over player-weeks; R^2 RB median 0.188 (0.132-0.271, 28 seasons); QB median 0.086 (0.010-0.183, 28 seasons); position group is the player's CURRENT nflverse position applied to every season, not as-of; QB kneel-downs (nflverse qb_kneel) are excluded from both sides of the fit - 9457 kneel plays removed (RB 4, QB 9453 by position group); per game: |value| against games played r 0.09 over 3799 player-seasons
Columns it reads
weekly_stats.carries, weekly_stats.rushing_tds, weekly_stats.position
Denominator
Not a share: the figure has no denominator it splits with anyone.
Season range
Current 1999–2026. Current. Its inputs cover 1999 to 2026 and reach the season in progress.
Slices
season|position_group; the page opens on 2025|QB
Refreshed
This file was generated Tue, Oct 27, 9:32 AM ET. It does not state a refresh schedule.

Distribution

The middle half sits between −0.13 and 0.08.

Production beyond opportunity per game: rushing TDs, 2025|QB · N = 42 with at least 5 games · 1999–2026

−0.30 to −0.25: 1−0.25 to −0.20: 2−0.20 to −0.15: 2−0.15 to −0.10: 9−0.10 to −0.05: 7−0.05 to 0.00: 40.00 to 0.05: 30.05 to 0.10: 50.10 to 0.15: 40.15 to 0.20: 00.20 to 0.25: 30.25 to 0.30: 10.30 to 0.35: 00.35 to 0.40: 00.40 to 0.45: 00.45 to 0.50: 1

Darker bars: 0.10 and up, 9 of 42 values, the top fifth (21%).

Does it carry?

No week-to-week carry-over is published for this measure. Its file holds a value per player with its interval; whether a week above average carries into the next is not in it.

Loading Production beyond opportunity per game: rushing TDs…

What the file does and does not say

Four limits, stated plainly.

  1. Interval from resampling games with replacement, 2,000 times. Built at 95%. That coverage is nominal: this page does not check it against outcomes.
  2. n counts independent games, never rows. A value resting on fewer than 5 games is shown muted in the table and not read: it is left out of the range and the leaders.
  3. It covers 1999 to 2026, and says why in the producer's words: the whole archive, 1999-2026; no input binds it; fit rushing TDs ~ carries, OLS per season x position group over player-weeks; R^2 RB median 0.188 (0.132-0.271, 28 seasons); QB median 0.086 (0.010-0.183, 28 seasons); position group is the player's CURRENT nflverse position applied to every season, not as-of; QB kneel-downs (nflverse qb_kneel) are excluded from both sides of the fit - 9457 kneel plays removed (RB 4, QB 9453 by position group); per game: |value| against games played r 0.09 over 3799 player-seasons.
  4. It has values for 1,010 players. One with no row in the file has no value here, which is not a value of zero.