calibrated SPORTS
NFLAnalyticsOpportunity residualFit Receptions

One measure, in full · Opportunity residual

How much of receptions volume explains

Opportunity residual

Not published
Week-to-week carry-over
2009–2026
Seasons
One league figure
Leader
54
Values in the file

Definition

One definition, the column that binds its range, and what the figure is a share of.

R^2 of receptions on targets across one season's player-weeks in one position group; the interval resamples players

opportunity_residual.fit.receptions

Source
pbp; n counts independent players
Bound column
starts 2009: pbp.receiver_player_id|incomplete_pass is not usable before it; fit receptions ~ targets, OLS per season x position group over player-weeks; R^2 WR median 0.777 (0.724-0.816, 18 seasons); TE median 0.806 (0.779-0.856, 18 seasons); RB median 0.824 (0.804-0.872, 18 seasons); position group is the player's CURRENT nflverse position applied to every season, not as-of
Columns it reads
pbp.receiver_player_id|incomplete_pass, pbp.receiver_player_id|complete_pass, weekly_stats.position
Denominator
Not a share: the figure has no denominator it splits with anyone.
Season range
Current 2009–2026. Current. Its inputs cover 2009 to 2026 and reach the season in progress.
Slices
season|position_group
Refreshed
This file was generated Tue, Oct 27, 9:32 AM ET. It does not state a refresh schedule.

Distribution

No distribution: the file is one figure for the whole league, not a value per player.

Does it carry?

No week-to-week carry-over is published for this measure. Its file holds a value per league with its interval; whether a week above average carries into the next is not in it.

Leaderboard

No leaderboard: the file is one league-wide figure, not a value per player.

What the file does and does not say

Four limits, stated plainly.

  1. Interval from resampling players with replacement, 2,000 times. Built at 95%. That coverage is nominal: this page does not check it against outcomes.
  2. n counts independent players, never rows. A value resting on fewer than 5 players is shown muted in the table and not read: it is left out of the range and the leaders.
  3. It covers 2009 to 2026, and says why in the producer's words: starts 2009: pbp.receiver_player_id|incomplete_pass is not usable before it; fit receptions ~ targets, OLS per season x position group over player-weeks; R^2 WR median 0.777 (0.724-0.816, 18 seasons); TE median 0.806 (0.779-0.856, 18 seasons); RB median 0.824 (0.804-0.872, 18 seasons); position group is the player's CURRENT nflverse position applied to every season, not as-of.
  4. It is one figure for the whole league, pooled. It does not say what any one player does, and it does not split by position.