calibrated SPORTS
NFL

2026 · Week 8

4,015 players.
7,383 games logged.

The whole record for every player with offensive usage since 1999: game logs, usage and season totals, from the nflverse record. Where the exchange lists a ladder before kickoff, the whole distribution is published rather than a single number: 7 of the 274 players expected in Week 8, 2.5%.

Markets priced
7
Week 8
Ladder rungs
59
across those markets
Teams
32
01 · PLAYERS

7 of 274 players expected this week have a whole distribution.

Every player with offensive usage since 1999 has a page. Where the exchange lists a ladder, the page carries the full curve instead of a single number.

Open Players
2.5% priced · of the 274 expected in Week 8
RECEIVING YARDS · 2026
01 / 09 · PLAYERS

This week's slate

2026 Week 8

Reading Week 8 from the team schedules.

Leaders this season

2026 · through Week 7

Regular-season totals, counted rather than estimated, so each carries a rank. G is games. Per-game figures, with intervals, are on Players.

Receiving yardsSEASON TOTAL · G
Rushing yardsSEASON TOTAL · G
Target shareSHARE OF TEAM · G

In the news

What the record says

Five findings, each read from a file and linked to where it lives. The pages hold the detail; this is the part worth knowing before you open any of them.

F11 · STREAK CHECK53%A 6-of-7 streak shows 86%. The next game cleared 53% of the time (95% interval 52%–54%), so the streak's own rate is outside that interval.12,953 EARLIER STREAKS · SEASONS NOT IN THE BOARD FILELINES →PROP MODEL VS THE CLOSE0.0195Tested walk-forward against the de-vigged sportsbook close, the prop model scored worse than the closing price in 2025.BRIER · 95% INTERVAL 0.0144 to 0.0253 · 284 GAMESLINES →MODEL VS A NAIVE PRIOR0.0012On the scored set, the model's probabilities scored no better than a naive prior. The figure is Brier(model) − Brier(naive), with its 95% interval.BRIER · 95% INTERVAL −0.0101 to 0.0136 · n = 925RESEARCH →R18 · RETIRED−2.43ppThe closing over on settled player props is overpriced: its realized rate minus its price.95% INTERVAL −3.13pp to −1.72pp · n = 44,198RESEARCH →REPLAY · THE LAB0 of 44 rules replayed (verdicts: Loses 3, Unclear 1); 0 with an ROI interval wholly over zero.2025 HELD BACK · SETTLED PROPS THE LAB REPLAYS AGAINST: COMING ONCE THE LAB PUBLISHES ITS CATALOGUE.REPLAY →

Bring a question

Every page answers one. Start from what you want to know rather than from where it is filed.

How a number gets here

Four stages, left to right. Every page on the site sits at one of them, and nothing reaches a page without passing the ones before it.

  1. 01The recordGame logs, usage and results from the nflverse record. Counted, not estimated.7,383 GAMES · 1999–2026PLAYERSTEAMSANALYTICS
  2. 02The pricesThe exchange's ladders, where it lists them before kickoff, and the sportsbook close that Lines and Replay grade against.59 LADDER RUNGS · WEEK 8LIVELINES
  3. 03Our modelSecond Opinion prices the same lines. Where it differs from the market by 4 points or more, that is a lean.243 LEANS · WEEK 7LINESFANTASY
  4. 04The scoreLeans are graded after the fact, and rules are replayed. The prop model scored worse than the close.BRIER 0.0195 · 284 GAMESREPLAYRESEARCH

Tools that work on the record

Six things you can do rather than read. None needs an account; the ones that remember anything keep it in your browser.

7,383 games logged · 28 seasons · 32 teamsCoverage from the nflverse recordGenerated Tue, Oct 27, 9:27 AM ET