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NFLTeamsAtl

ATL · NFC South

Atlanta Falcons

3–4NFC South · 2nd1999–2026 in the record458 games with a final score

2026, every week, played or not

7 OF 17 PLAYED
1L
2L
3W
4W
5L
6L
7W
8
9
10
11B
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
WinLossNot yet playedBye

Overview

NEXT · WEEK 8@ Tampa Bay BuccaneersLineATL +2.5Total46.5Sunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET · opposing coach Todd Bowles. Line and total from the nflverse schedule file, capture time not recorded.
LAST RESULT · WEEK 7W 29–20vs San Francisco 49ersATL29SF20Margin +9. Listed line +2.5; against-the-spread results come once lines are confirmed as closing.
MARGIN · 2026−0.3points a gameWidest +21 at Green Bay Packers; narrowest −31 against Carolina Panthers. Ten games still to fill in.
Chance to win the division

NFC South, week 7 the last complete. Showing the model's chance.

  • ATL38%
  • CAR32%
  • TB22%
  • NO8%

Season path

171 points for through week 7 of 2026: 7 of 17 games, every week drawn.

0100200300400500W1W2W3W4W5W6W7W8W9W10W11W12W13W14W15W16W17W1813165196119142171PACE 415
Through week 7171
Per game24.4
17-game pace415
PlayedPace: the 2026 average carried forward. Arithmetic, not a forecast.Not yet playedBye, week 11
How this is computed

Cumulative points for across the 18-week season, read from this team's own schedule. The axis is drawn complete from week 1: the weeks carrying a result are solid, and every week after them is in the unplayed empty state.

The dashed line is the pace: the season's average per game so far, times each game still on the schedule, stepped at that game's own week. It assumes nothing but that the rest of the season looks like the part already played (arithmetic, not a forecast), and it moves only when a result lands. Wins are not carried forward this way: the win rate so far, times the games left, draws every unbeaten team winning out.

On the Wins tab the dashed line is the season model instead: its mean cumulative wins, week by week, with the central 80% and 95% of its simulations as bands. Each game left carries the model's chance to win it.

Scored walk-forward on 768 team-seasons, 2002 to 2025 (12,446 forecasts), the projected final wins missed by 1.76 wins, root mean square, against 3.08 for the pace line and 1.99 for the standings with every game left a coin flip. With whole seasons resampled, the model is better than the pace line and better than the coin-flip standings.

Walk-forward, the central 80% band held the real final record 89.5% of the time, consistent with the 90.1% of simulations inside it.

Schedule and results

7 of 17 games in 2026 carry a final score.

WEEK 1Sep 13@ Pittsburgh SteelersL 13–20 −7LINE +6.5 · O/U 40.5Mike McCarthy
WEEK 2Sep 20vs Carolina PanthersL 3–34 −31LINE +2.5 · O/U 43.5Dave Canales
WEEK 3Sep 24@ Green Bay PackersW 35–14 +21LINE +4.5 · O/U 43.5Matt LaFleur
WEEK 4Oct 5@ New Orleans SaintsW 45–24 +21LINE +1.5 · O/U 47.5Kellen Moore
WEEK 5Oct 11vs Baltimore RavensL 23–30 −7LINE −3.5 · O/U 44.5Jesse Minter
WEEK 6Oct 18vs Chicago BearsL 23–31 −8LINE +1.5 · O/U 51.5Ben Johnson
WEEK 7Oct 25vs San Francisco 49ersW 29–20 +9LINE +2.5 · O/U 49.5Kyle Shanahan
WEEK 8Nov 1@ Tampa Bay BuccaneersNot yet playedLINE +2.5 · O/U 46.5Todd Bowles
WEEK 9Nov 8vs Cincinnati BengalsNot yet playedZac Taylor
WEEK 10Nov 15vs Kansas City ChiefsNot yet playedAndy Reid
WEEK 11

Bye

WEEK 12Nov 29@ Minnesota VikingsNot yet playedKevin O'Connell
WEEK 13Dec 6vs Detroit LionsNot yet playedDan Campbell
WEEK 14Dec 13@ Cleveland BrownsNot yet playedTodd Monken
WEEK 15Dec 20@ Washington CommandersNot yet playedDan Quinn
WEEK 16Dec 27vs Tampa Bay BuccaneersNot yet playedTodd Bowles
WEEK 17Jan 3vs New Orleans SaintsNot yet playedKellen Moore
WEEK 18Jan 10@ Carolina PanthersNot yet playedDave Canales

Result against the spread: coming once the schedule's lines are confirmed as closing lines. Line and total come from the nflverse schedule file; capture time is not recorded, so neither is confirmed as the closing line.

Line and total: nflverse schedule file, capture time not recorded, not confirmed as the closing line.

How this is computed

Games played before a relocation are shown under the current franchise.

Margin is points for minus points against, from the row's own two scores. The line is from this team's side: the favourite carries the minus sign.

Offense and defense, by unit

24.4 points a game in 2026, over 7 games.

Points / game24.42026 · 7 GAMES
Pass + rush attempts / game58.12026 · 7 GAMES
Neutral situations · 2025POINT AND INTERVAL · N = 17
Neutral pace, seconds per play30.5s 29.3s–31.6s
Neutral plays per game36.9 31.6–42.3

No 2026 value is published yet for Neutral pace, seconds per play, Neutral plays per game, so each is shown for the season named beside it.

Coming once the analytics export carries per-team play-by-play

Neutral early-down pass rateEPA / play, offenseEPA / play allowed, defensePressure rate generatedPressure rate allowedSack-or-hit rate generated (not pressure)

Rank of 32 is not drawn: an order over teams whose figures overlap within their uncertainty asserts a separation the figures do not support.

How this is computed

Season totals over the games they were recorded across, from this team's own file.

The rows under them are the analytics export's, one value per team per season, each with its interval and n, the number of games it rests on. Under 5 is shown muted and marked: the interval is honest, and too wide to read. The interval's construction is the file's own. Rows of one format share one axis; rows of different formats never do.

Neutral pace, seconds per play. seconds between snaps within a drive, neutral situations only

Neutral plays per game. run and pass plays in neutral situations, per game; still partly a scoreboard measure - a team blown out weekly has fewer by construction

Roster · usage share

Bijan Robinson leads the offense with 41% of the team's targets and carries in 2026.

RB 57%WR 28%TE 11%QB 4%OT 0%
RBBijan Robinson741%17%64%71%
RBBrian Robinson615%3%26%30%
WRDrake London715%29%1%89%
TEKyle Pitts77%14%0%59%
WRJahan Dotson76%13%0%68%
WRZachariah Branch73%6%0%26%
QBMichael Penix Jr.53%0%6%99%
WROlamide Zaccheaus63%6%0%39%
TEAustin Hooper53%5%0%29%
TECharlie Woerner42%3%0%61%
WRChris Blair61%2%0%23%
RBKhalil Herbert11%1%1%16%
QBCooper Rush21%0%1%79%
QBJack Strand11%0%1%42%
TENick Muse51%1%0%15%
OTJake Matthews30%1%0%99%
QBTua Tagovailoa10%0%0%5%

Offensive line, 5 players at 38% to 100% snap share: Jawaan Taylor, Matthew Bergeron, Ryan Neuzil, Chris Lindstrom, Michael Jerrell. 29 defensive and 2 special-teams players are on the roster and not drawn. The file carries offensive snap share only, and a column of zeros would be a false figure about each of them.

How this is computed

Volume, not efficiency. On offense each player is ranked by opportunity share: the player's targets plus carries, over the team's targets plus carries, summed over the season. The team file carries no count of plays, so the whole is the team's own opportunities, and a team's shares add up to all of them. The stacked bar is those shares, player by player, each in its position's colour; a row's bar is drawn against the leader's.

Linemen carry snaps and no targets or carries, so they are one line with the spread of their offensive snap share. A player at any position with a target or a carry is ranked. Snap share on this page is offensive snaps only, so it is not shown for defenders or specialists at all.

PPR/G: each game this player's row in the components table carries for this team, scored under the PPR preset, summed, and divided by those games. A player the table does not carry has a dash, not a zero.

Offensive splits by season

Per-game figures, regular season: 28 seasons, 1999–2026.

Points per game, by season

1999–2026 · 2026 IS SEVEN GAMES
17.8'9918.2'0118.7'0321.9'0516.2'0722.7'0925.1'1122.1'1321.2'1522.1'1723.8'1918.4'2118.9'2320.8'2524.4'26
Offense, per game
SeasonG
2026727.4211.31.429.4139.91.128.718.3211.31.424.41.0
20251730.5217.81.128.1125.81.032.119.5217.81.120.80.5
20241731.7251.91.229.1130.51.132.921.4251.91.222.91.1
20231729.9222.11.030.7127.00.831.219.2222.11.018.91.0
20221723.5172.21.032.9159.91.024.415.1172.21.021.50.5
20211732.6234.51.223.185.40.633.722.2234.51.218.40.9
20201637.8288.81.725.695.80.839.325.5288.81.724.80.7
20191640.9315.61.822.685.10.642.828.7315.61.823.80.9
20181637.8309.32.321.998.30.738.626.8309.32.325.90.4
20171632.3259.11.326.9115.40.833.121.4259.11.322.10.8
20161633.1310.02.426.3120.51.333.623.4310.02.433.80.4
20151638.6287.61.326.3100.40.838.825.6287.61.321.21.1
20141638.9297.41.823.393.60.739.526.1297.41.823.80.9
20131640.6283.81.620.177.90.741.227.8283.81.622.11.1
20121638.2294.92.023.687.30.838.426.4294.92.026.20.9
20111636.4272.81.828.3114.60.937.122.8272.81.825.10.8
20101635.8232.81.831.1118.20.936.122.6232.81.825.90.6
20091634.3231.11.628.2117.30.935.620.8231.11.622.71.1
200816—215.01.035.0152.71.427.116.6215.01.024.40.7
200716—223.31.124.195.00.434.821.0223.31.116.21.0
200616—167.61.333.6183.70.626.113.9167.61.318.30.9
200516—181.71.233.1159.91.128.215.4181.71.221.90.8
200416—168.20.932.8167.01.324.713.6168.20.921.31.0
200316—164.40.927.2121.81.128.814.4164.40.918.71.3
20021628.3211.51.132.7148.01.429.916.8211.51.125.10.8
20011630.0230.91.227.4110.10.630.317.4230.91.218.21.1
20001631.1197.90.921.975.90.432.117.8197.90.915.81.3
19991630.3230.71.423.374.80.631.817.4230.71.417.81.2

Tgt is not recorded for 2003–2008.

The record carries 28 seasons, 1999–2026; the splits cover all 28.

Defense, per game
SeasonG
2026724.738.61.330.74.92.48.00.45.11.10.00.0
20251723.637.81.027.75.63.45.70.95.10.70.10.0
20241724.936.93.926.34.61.84.40.73.90.70.20.1
20231721.934.66.926.13.32.55.80.53.91.10.10.1
20221722.733.46.430.82.81.24.10.64.10.50.10.1
20211727.037.55.428.32.61.03.50.74.50.80.10.0
20201625.941.41.721.33.31.85.80.83.21.10.10.0
20191624.936.63.224.73.91.84.30.83.61.10.10.0
20181626.441.43.120.43.42.34.80.94.50.50.10.0
20171619.740.62.119.14.62.45.10.54.10.80.00.0
2017 POST214.046.01.59.55.52.05.00.05.51.00.00.0
20161625.440.42.618.93.62.15.10.85.61.10.20.0
2016 POST325.044.34.014.75.33.38.01.35.30.70.30.3
20151621.641.73.314.82.91.24.70.93.80.80.10.0
20141626.140.32.621.13.41.43.91.04.10.80.10.0
20131627.740.82.920.23.62.03.70.63.60.80.10.0
20121618.743.81.512.34.41.84.41.35.10.90.10.0
2012 POST228.037.50.023.03.01.52.50.54.01.00.00.0
20111621.939.81.818.2—2.05.11.25.40.80.10.0
2011 POST124.029.027.027.0—1.05.00.03.00.00.00.0
20101618.041.37.112.4—1.93.41.44.40.90.10.0
2010 POST148.047.02.020.0—2.05.00.01.01.00.00.0
20091620.340.49.712.6—1.83.60.94.01.30.10.0
20081620.340.79.511.0—2.13.60.64.80.60.10.0
2008 POST130.038.012.012.0—0.03.01.03.00.00.00.0
20071625.947.56.87.8—1.62.31.04.51.00.00.0
20061620.539.610.313.2—2.33.40.84.71.20.10.0
20051621.342.48.312.3—2.3—1.04.40.90.00.1
20041621.146.25.68.8—2.9—1.25.01.10.30.0
2004 POST222.046.00.02.0—3.0—0.52.51.00.00.5
20031626.447.87.89.1—2.3—0.93.51.40.20.0
20021619.642.28.010.94.12.92.71.55.01.30.10.0
2002 POST213.538.04.513.53.02.01.01.08.01.00.00.0
20011623.640.88.310.84.32.32.51.14.50.90.00.0
20001625.841.47.311.93.41.91.60.94.40.80.10.1
19991623.840.38.012.83.82.52.50.84.50.60.10.2

TFL is not recorded for 2003–2011. QB Hits is not recorded for 2003–2005.

Yards allowed per game: not in the export, so the defensive table carries points allowed and the counting stats only.

How this is computed

Season totals divided by the games they were recorded over, each unit on its own. A rate the source publishes as a rate is left as one. The chart draws the regular seasons only.

Head coaches

28 seasons

7 head coaches across 28 seasons.

SeasonHead coach
2026Raheem Morris
2025Raheem Morris
2024Raheem Morris
2023Arthur Smith
2022Arthur Smith
2021Arthur Smith
2020Raheem Morris
2019Dan Quinn
2018Dan Quinn
2017Dan Quinn
2016Dan Quinn
2015Dan Quinn
2014Mike Smith
2013Mike Smith
2012Mike Smith
2011Mike Smith
2010Mike Smith
2009Mike Smith
2008Mike Smith
2007Bobby Petrino
2006Jim Mora
2005Jim Mora
2004Jim Mora
2003Dan Reeves
2002Dan Reeves
2001Dan Reeves
2000Dan Reeves
1999Dan Reeves

In the news

468 scheduled · 458 played · 53 roster rowsLines not confirmed as closingData through week 7, 2026Generated Tue, Oct 27, 9:27 AM ET