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15 PLAYERS WITH A POSTED MARKET · WEEK 7 · LAST READ THU, OCT 22, 9:22 AM ET

Stop reading one number. Read the whole market.

Pick a sport ↓

A sportsbook shows you one line. The market knows the whole distribution. We read prediction market ladders and sportsbook odds and give you all of it: every rung, for every priced player, scored in public.

WEEK 6 · SETTLED

Trey McBride · Receptions · Sunday

  1. 01One line.A sportsbook gives you a single threshold and a price with its margin in it.
  2. 02Twelve rungs.A prediction market prices every threshold as its own contract.
  3. 03One curve.Read together, the rungs are the whole distribution.
  4. 04Every answer.Slide the line: the chance of clearing any number, not just the one posted.
KALSHI · READ SUN, OCT 18, 4:04 PM ET

33% to clear 8.5 receptions

7 · RESULT0–3456789101112131415+

Each square is 2.4% of the chance; a column is the difference between two rungs’ mids. The mid of each rung's bid and ask, no de-vig (an exchange).

What happened

Trey McBride: 7 receptions. Cleared every line from 3.5 to 6.5; missed every line from 7.5 to 14.5.

The margin

Why our number differs from theirs.

This scene takes one sportsbook price apart and removes its margin. Nothing to draw right now: no two-sided book price and no exchange ladder this period.

Bring a question.

Eight answers, all reading the same game logs and the same prices.

FANTASYWhich of my flex options has the higher floor?Every priced player’s range under your scoring.LINESWhere does the model disagree with the market?Sportsbook lines beside the prediction market.REPLAYWould fading every over have made money?Any rule, replayed at real closing prices over 552,646 rows.ANALYTICSHas this receiver’s target share held up?Which stats carry week to week, and which are noise.PLAYERSWho’s actually leading the league?Leaders by position, and the record for 4,009 players since 1999.TEAMSWhere does this team’s season end up?Played weeks solid, and each team’s chance to win its division.LIVEWhich game should I be watching?Nearest kickoff first, then the clock and down and distance as it plays.RESEARCHWhat did we say last week, and did it land?Every registered test published, whichever way it landed.

Fantasy, priced by money

Your scoring. The market’s prices. Every player’s whole range.

WEEK 6 · SETTLED

These fantasy points come from what people with money at risk believe. Then you reweight them.

Trey McBride TE ARI

Median16.7
Chance of 20+33%

Scored 12.3 PPR points: between its 25th and 50th percentiles.

PREDICTION MARKET LADDERS · PPR · READ SUN, OCT 18, 4:04 PM ET
Fantasy points, Week 680% RANGE 7.7–27.4

A whole shape behind every name

Fourteen players. Fourteen distributions.

WEEK 6 · SETTLED

Sorted by median. Hover a row for its middle and its range. Nowhere else draws this, because nowhere else has the ladders.

WRPuka Nacua
RBChristian McCaffrey
WRCeeDee Lamb
RBBijan Robinson
WRJaxon Smith-Njigba
TEBrock Bowers
TETrey McBride
WRMalik Nabers
WRChris Olave
RBJavonte Williams
RBAshton Jeanty
TEGeorge Kittle
RBJaylen Warren
RBRJ Harvey
0 PPR POINTS · 3-POINT BINS46
WRRBTE what each scoredPREDICTION MARKET LADDERS · PPR · 14 OF 14 ASKED FOR

Every sport has its own nuances

What decides a market in hockey isn’t what decides one in golf, so every sport gets a page built around its own problem.

Calibration

When the market says 70%, does it happen 70% of the time?

We check settled props against their prices and publish the curve. We don’t claim to beat the market. We claim to read it correctly, and this is the check.

This curve reads 925 settled outcomes over 14 games. The register also holds 44,198 settled player props in the market study.

MARKET SERIES · EXPECTED CALIBRATION ERROR 0.0502 · RESEARCH/CALIBRATION.JSON
0%–10%: priced 4.3%, happened 7.3%, n 28910%–20%: priced 14.8%, happened 21.9%, n 11420%–30%: priced 23.7%, happened 28.1%, n 8930%–40%: priced 35.0%, happened 47.9%, n 7140%–50%: priced 45.4%, happened 55.6%, n 13350%–60%: priced 55.0%, happened 55.3%, n 8560%–70%: priced 63.9%, happened 63.8%, n 5870%–80%: priced 74.6%, happened 76.0%, n 5080%–90%: priced 83.6%, happened 88.9%, n 36
0%MARKET SAID · HAPPENED ↑100%

NFL week 1 2026, KXNFLREC + KXNFLRSHATT, common set n=925, 14 games.

Not drawn: 90%–100%, a bin with no outcome.

EIGHTEEN TESTS · EVERY ONE PUBLISHED

Eight of the eleven intervals rule out the null. Seven tests carry none.

Registered before testing, published whichever way they landed. Each row is drawn against its own null, on its own scale: the rows are in different units, so lengths do not compare across rows. The figures do.

  1. R010.0898 probability [0.0552, 0.1429] · null 0.1388
  2. R02EXCLUDES · −13.52 pp [−17.06, −10.4] · null 0
  3. R03EXCLUDES · −3 pp [−3.8, −2.26] · null 0
  4. R040.28 pp [−0.34, 1] · null 0
  5. R05EXCLUDES · 0.67 pp [0.05, 1.39] · null 0
  6. R06no interval against a null232 episodes of 892 · no interval
  7. R07no interval against a null16 events of 18 · no interval
  8. R08EXCLUDES · −0.83 pp [−1.67, −0.29] · null 0
  9. R09−0.19 pp [−0.39, 0.01] · null 0
  10. R10EXCLUDES · 0.024 Brier [0.0089, 0.0373] · null 0
  11. R11EXCLUDES · 1.81 pp [1.24, 2.47] · null 0
  12. R12no interval against a nullno estimate
  13. R13no interval against a nullno estimate
  14. R14no interval against a null0 findings of 101 candidates · no interval
  15. R15EXCLUDES · 0.0195 Brier [0.0144, 0.0253] · null 0
  16. R16no interval against a null1.09 pp · no interval
  17. R17no interval against a null0 events · no interval
  18. R18EXCLUDES · −2.43 pp [−3.13, −1.72] · null 0
RESEARCH/HYPOTHESES.JSON · GENERATED THU, SEP 24, 6:59 PM ETSee all eighteen →

The counts

  • 4,009players with offensive usage, whole archive
  • 476players with offensive usage this season
  • 7,369games with a final score, whole archive
  • 93games with a final score this season
  • 15players with a posted market this period
  • 104ladder rungs read this period
  • 32teams
  • 28seasons in the archive
  • 44,198settled player props in the market study
  • —sportsbook lines on the Board's latest read · pending: no Board read for the current period was available to this run
  • —leans posted on the Board this week · pending: no Board read for the current period was available to this run
  • 552,646rows in the replay universe
  • 18tests published in the research register

Read the whole market.

NOT A SPORTSBOOK · NO WAGERS ACCEPTED · SOURCE NAMED ON EVERY FIGURE

EVERY FIGURE ABOVE IS READ FROM LANDING.JSON · BUILT THU, OCT 22, 9:34 AM ET

Sources · NFL