Lines · 2026 · Week 7 · read Tue 9:24 AM ET
453 lines posted.
The model leans on 243.
Every posted line this week, the market's price, the Second Opinion beside it, and what leans that size have done before. Nothing leaves the board when it misses.
The site's current period is week 8; this is the board for week 7, the newest one published.
What a lean is
A gap of 4 points or more between the model and the market.
It is published so it can be graded, not because disagreeing has paid. Every lean stays on the record, cleared or missed.
From the board index · board/nfl/2026/wk07/index.json
Player props
453 of 453 lines posted; 243 carry a lean, at a gap of 4 points or more. Each row sets the market’s chance of the over beside the Second Opinion’s.
Rows 1–40 of 453 · page 1 of 12
Market 50.2%Second Opinion not priced
Market 44.4% +0.9 since openSecond Opinion 31.9%
Market 47.3% −2.1 since openSecond Opinion 42.6%
Market 50.0%Second Opinion not priced
Market 34.5% −0.3 since openSecond Opinion 45.9%
Market 50.0%Second Opinion not priced
Market 60.1%Second Opinion 44.6%
Market 41.9%Second Opinion 30.2%
Market 49.4%Second Opinion not priced
Market 55.8% −0.3 since openSecond Opinion 41.8%
Market 50.1% −3.9 since openSecond Opinion 45.5%
Market 50.0%Second Opinion not priced
Market 46.4% +6.2 since openSecond Opinion 24.3%
Market 49.2% +0.6 since openSecond Opinion 43.3%
Market 50.0%Second Opinion not priced
Market 50.8% −10.3 since openSecond Opinion 24.4%
Market 50.0%Second Opinion not priced
Market 46.2% +2.1 since openSecond Opinion 38.3%
Market 50.2%Second Opinion not priced
Market 43.3% +0.8 since openSecond Opinion 44.8%
Market 50.0%Second Opinion not priced
Market 49.0% −3.0 since openSecond Opinion 33.7%
Market 50.0% −0.5 since openSecond Opinion not priced
Market 38.7% −1.2 since openSecond Opinion 22.1%
Market 50.0%Second Opinion not priced
Market 55.5% +4.5 since openSecond Opinion 36.4%
Market 50.0%Second Opinion not priced
Market 50.0% −4.2 since openSecond Opinion 41.6%
Market 52.0% +0.1 since openSecond Opinion 36.8%
Market 50.0%Second Opinion not priced
Market 43.1% −0.2 since openSecond Opinion 44.8%
Market 51.5%Second Opinion not priced
Market 42.5% −0.6 since openSecond Opinion 18.9%
Market 55.7%Second Opinion 18.2%
Market 44.1%Second Opinion 15.0%
Market 51.0%Second Opinion not priced
Market 62.5% +0.4 since openSecond Opinion 66.6%
Market 46.5%Second Opinion 78.1%
Market 46.8%Second Opinion 71.1%
Market 49.4% −0.6 since openSecond Opinion not priced
243 leans published for week 7: 235 graded, 0 upcoming, 0 live, 8 void. On this read, 128 cleared, 107 missed.
Receipts: every lean the model has published this season, graded, none removed →
How the board is read
Market P(over): median of each benchmark book’s de-vigged price at the main line · Second Opinion: baseline-usage-0.4+03571d4710af
- Line
- the main line AT THIS READ: the listed threshold whose median de-vigged over probability across DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM is closest to 0.5. is_main is a property of the read, not of the market; it is false only on a row kept for a published lean whose line the main line moved off.
- Gap
- model minus market, probability points, signed
- Lean
- over at gap >= +T, under at gap <= -T
- Longshot
- market P(over) outside [0.15, 0.85]; multiplicative de-vig is biased there - to revisit with Shin or power de-vig once settled data exists
- Void
- market_pulled | inactive | no_snap - a voided lean stays on the ledger
Threshold log (appended, never edited, so every lean is graded against the threshold it was published under): 4 points from 2026-09-01 (decided 2026-09-24 (audit 5.3, unit a-26) before the first board; effective from season start because no board read predates it).
Last read Tue 9:24 AM ET · week 7Break-even at −110 is 52.4%Nothing leaves the board when it misses
Not a sportsbook · no wagers accepted · nothing here is advice · read Tue 9:24 AM ET · 197 reads this week · model baseline-usage-0.4+03571d4710af · board/nfl/2026/wk07