Lines · 2026 · Week 7 · read Tue 9:24 AM ET
453 lines posted.
The model leans on 243.
Every posted line this week, the market's price, the Second Opinion beside it, and what leans that size have done before. Nothing leaves the board when it misses.
The site's current period is week 8; this is the board for week 7, the newest one published.
What a lean is
A gap of 4 points or more between the model and the market.
It is published so it can be graded, not because disagreeing has paid. Every lean stays on the record, cleared or missed.
From the board index · board/nfl/2026/wk07/index.json
Streak check
4 rules fired this week. The rate shown sits 32 to 55 points from the rate the next game cleared at; 4 of 4 sit outside that rate’s 95% interval.
72 lines, by rule
27 on 6 or 7 of last 7, 5 on 5 of last 5, 1 on 5 of last 5 away, 39 on 1 of 1 against this opponent.
The widest gap
1 of 1 against this opponent
Shown as 100%. Across 22,887 lines the next game cleared 45% of the time [44%–46%], under a coin flip, interval and all.
Above break-even
2 of 4 rules
6 or 7 of last 7 (53.4%, 95% 52.5%–54.3%) and 5 of last 5 (56.9%, 95% 55.6%–58.1%): the whole of each 95% interval sits past 52.4%. 0 of 4 rules' next-game intervals take in the rate the streak shows.
A streak is selected because it hit, so the rate beside it is not an estimate of the next game. Each rule here is fixed in advance, not chosen by who hit, and its next-game rate was measured on every earlier time the same rule fired. The rules: 6 or 7 of last 7; 5 of last 5; 5 of last 5 away; 1 of 1 against this opponent.
This week’s streaks
Every line a rule fired on, with what that rule’s next game has cleared at. 72 lines shown.
Next game cleared45%
Next game cleared45%
Next game cleared45%
Next game cleared45%
Next game cleared53%
Next game cleared53%
Next game cleared45%
Next game cleared45%
Next game cleared45%
Next game cleared45%
Next game cleared53%
Next game cleared53%
Next game cleared53%
Next game cleared45%
Next game cleared45%
Next game cleared45%
Next game cleared45%
Next game cleared53%
Next game cleared45%
Next game cleared45%
Next game cleared45%
Next game cleared45%
Next game cleared45%
Next game cleared53%
Next game cleared53%
Next game cleared45%
Next game cleared45%
Next game cleared45%
Next game cleared45%
Next game cleared57%
Next game cleared53%
Next game cleared53%
Next game cleared53%
Next game cleared52%
Next game cleared45%
Next game cleared53%
Next game cleared53%
Next game cleared57%
Next game cleared57%
Next game cleared45%
Last read Tue 9:24 AM ET · week 7Break-even at −110 is 52.4%Nothing leaves the board when it misses
Not a sportsbook · no wagers accepted · nothing here is advice · read Tue 9:24 AM ET · 197 reads this week · model baseline-usage-0.4+03571d4710af · board/nfl/2026/wk07