Lines · 2026 · Week 7 · read Tue 9:24 AM ET

453 lines posted.
The model leans on 243.

Every posted line this week, the market's price, the Second Opinion beside it, and what leans that size have done before. Nothing leaves the board when it misses.

The site's current period is week 8; this is the board for week 7, the newest one published.

Leans published, week 7

243

235 graded · 0 open · 8 void

Leans cleared, this read

54%

128 of 235 · 95% 48%–61%

Break-even at −110

52.4%

what a lean at that price needs

What a lean is

A gap of 4 points or more between the model and the market.

First opinionThe market’s price

Second OpinionThe model’s

It is published so it can be graded, not because disagreeing has paid. Every lean stays on the record, cleared or missed.

From the board index · board/nfl/2026/wk07/index.json

Player props

243 of 453 lines shown; 243 carry a lean, at a gap of 4 points or more. Each row sets the market’s chance of the over beside the Second Opinion’s.

Lean

All Leans No lean

Market

All Rec yds Rec Rush att

Hide settled

Game and order

Rows 1–40 of 243 · page 1 of 7

Settled14 games, graded where the line stood at its last read before kickoff · 243 lines · 40 of them on this page

WRA.J. Brown Rec 5.5 · NE @ CHI · NE

Market 44.4% +0.9 since openSecond Opinion 31.9%

under−12.6Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862lean cleared

5 of 10 over

over missed3

QBCaleb Williams Rush att 4.5 · NE @ CHI · CHI

Market 47.3% −2.1 since openSecond Opinion 42.6%

under−4.7Leans this size 47% [41%–52%] · n 315lean missed

4 of 10 over

over cleared5

TECole Kmet Rec 1.5 · NE @ CHI · CHI

Market 34.5% −0.3 since openSecond Opinion 45.9%

over+11.3Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862lean cleared

7 of 10 over

over cleared3

TEColston Loveland Rec 3.5 · NE @ CHI · CHIopened at 4.5line moved after the lean

Market 60.1%Second Opinion 44.6%

under−15.5Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862lean missed

6 of 10 over

over cleared7

TEColston Loveland Rec 4.5 · NE @ CHI · CHIopened at 4.5

Market 41.9%Second Opinion 30.2%

under−11.7Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862lean missed

4 of 10 over

over cleared7

RBD'Andre Swift Rec 2.5 · NE @ CHI · CHI

Market 55.8% −0.3 since openSecond Opinion 41.8%

under−14.0Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862lean missed

3 of 10 over

over cleared4

RBD'Andre Swift Rush att 14.5 · NE @ CHI · CHI

Market 50.1% −3.9 since openSecond Opinion 45.5%

under−4.6Leans this size 47% [41%–52%] · n 315lean missed

6 of 10 over

over cleared22

WRDeMario Douglas Rec 3.5 · NE @ CHI · NE

Market 46.4% +6.2 since openSecond Opinion 24.3%

under−22.1Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862lean cleared

3 of 10 over

over missed3

QBDrake Maye Rush att 5.5 · NE @ CHI · NE

Market 49.2% +0.6 since openSecond Opinion 43.3%

under−5.9Leans this size 47% [41%–52%] · n 315lean cleared

4 of 10 over

over missed4

WREfton Chism III Rec 1.5 · NE @ CHI · NE

Market 50.8% −10.3 since openSecond Opinion 24.4%

under−26.5Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862lean cleared

3 of 10 over

over missed1

TEEli Raridon Rec 1.5 · NE @ CHI · NE

Market 46.2% +2.1 since openSecond Opinion 38.3%

under−7.9Leans this size 48% [45%–51%] · n 1,059lean missed

1 of 5 over

over cleared3

WRKalif Raymond Rec 2.5 · NE @ CHI · CHI

Market 49.0% −3.0 since openSecond Opinion 33.7%

under−15.3Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862lean cleared

6 of 10 over

over missed0

WRKyle Williams Rec 1.5 · NE @ CHI · NE

Market 38.7% −1.2 since openSecond Opinion 22.1%

under−16.6Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862lean cleared

3 of 10 over

over missed0

WRLuther Burden III Rec 4.5 · NE @ CHI · CHI

Market 55.5% +4.5 since openSecond Opinion 36.4%

under−19.1Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862lean cleared

5 of 10 over

over missed4

RBRhamondre Stevenson Rec 2.5 · NE @ CHI · NE

Market 50.0% −4.2 since openSecond Opinion 41.6%

under−8.3Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862lean missed

6 of 10 over

over cleared5

RBRhamondre Stevenson Rush att 10.5 · NE @ CHI · NE

Market 52.0% +0.1 since openSecond Opinion 36.8%

under−15.3Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean cleared

4 of 10 over

over missed6

RBRoschon Johnson Rec 1.5 · NE @ CHI · CHI

Market 42.5% −0.6 since openSecond Opinion 18.9%

under−23.6Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862lean cleared

2 of 10 over

over missed0

RBRoschon Johnson Rush att 6.5 · NE @ CHI · CHIopened at 6.5

Market 55.7%Second Opinion 18.2%

under−37.5Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean cleared

1 of 10 over

over missed2

RBRoschon Johnson Rush att 7.5 · NE @ CHI · CHIopened at 6.5line moved after the lean

Market 44.1%Second Opinion 15.0%

under−29.1Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean cleared

1 of 10 over

over missed2

RBTreVeyon Henderson Rec 0.5 · NE @ CHI · NE

Market 62.5% +0.4 since openSecond Opinion 66.6%

over+4.1Leans this size 50% [47%–53%] · n 1,084lean cleared

6 of 10 over

over cleared2

RBTreVeyon Henderson Rush att 6.5 · NE @ CHI · NEopened at 7.5

Market 46.5%Second Opinion 78.1%

over+31.6Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean missed

8 of 10 over

over missed3

RBTreVeyon Henderson Rush att 7.5 · NE @ CHI · NEopened at 7.5line moved after the lean

Market 46.8%Second Opinion 71.1%

over+24.3Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean missed

7 of 10 over

over missed3

WRBryce Lance Rec 1.5 · PIT @ NO · NO

Market 43.6% −2.1 since openSecond Opinion 30.9%

under−12.7Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862lean missed

2 of 6 over

over cleared2

WRChris Olave Rec 6.5 · PIT @ NO · NOopened at 5.5

Market 46.6%Second Opinion 41.4%

under−5.2Leans this size 50% [47%–53%] · n 1,084lean cleared

6 of 10 over

over missed6

TEDarnell Washington Rec 2.5 · PIT @ NO · PIT

Market 47.3% −0.3 since openSecond Opinion 36.4%

under−10.9Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862lean cleared

5 of 10 over

over missed1

WRDevaughn Vele Rec 3.5 · PIT @ NO · NOopened at 3.5

Market 55.8%Second Opinion 43.8%

under−12.0Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862lean missed

6 of 10 over

over cleared5

WRDevaughn Vele Rec 4.5 · PIT @ NO · NOopened at 3.5line moved after the lean

Market 43.3%Second Opinion 29.3%

under−14.0Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862lean missed

5 of 10 over

over cleared5

WRDK Metcalf Rec 4.5 · PIT @ NO · PIT

Market 53.5% −0.3 since openSecond Opinion 45.8%

under−7.7Leans this size 48% [45%–51%] · n 1,059lean cleared

3 of 10 over

over missed2

WRGermie Bernard Rec 4.5 · PIT @ NO · PITopened at 5.5line moved after the lean

Market 57.2%Second Opinion 15.6%

under−41.6Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862lean cleared

2 of 5 over

over missed3

WRGermie Bernard Rec 5.5 · PIT @ NO · PITopened at 5.5

Market 44.0%Second Opinion 9.5%

under−34.5Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862lean cleared

2 of 5 over

over missed3

RBJaylen Warren Rec 3.5 · PIT @ NO · PIT

Market 39.9% −2.9 since openSecond Opinion 19.9%

under−20.0Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862lean cleared

3 of 10 over

over missed3

RBJaylen Warren Rush att 14.5 · PIT @ NO · PITopened at 13.5

Market 51.2%Second Opinion 40.9%

under−10.4Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean missed

3 of 10 over

over cleared18

TEJuwan Johnson Rec 3.5 · PIT @ NO · NO

Market 51.5% −0.2 since openSecond Opinion 59.1%

over+7.6Leans this size 48% [45%–51%] · n 1,059lean missed

7 of 10 over

over missed1

RBKendre Miller Rec 0.5 · PIT @ NO · NO

Market 60.6% +0.6 since openSecond Opinion 38.6%

under−22.0Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862lean missed

6 of 10 over

over cleared3

RBKendre Miller Rush att 11.5 · PIT @ NO · NOopened at 12.5

Market 48.8%Second Opinion 22.0%

under−26.8Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean cleared

1 of 10 over

over missed8

RBKendre Miller Rush att 12.5 · PIT @ NO · NOopened at 12.5line moved after the lean

Market 48.2%Second Opinion 18.2%

under−30.1Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean cleared

1 of 10 over

over missed8

TENoah Fant Rec 1.5 · PIT @ NO · NO

Market 50.0% −2.1 since openSecond Opinion 58.5%

over+8.5Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862lean cleared

2 of 10 over

over cleared2

RBRico Dowdle Rec 1.5 · PIT @ NO · PIT

Market 54.2%Second Opinion 49.4%

under−4.8Leans this size 50% [47%–53%] · n 1,084lean missed

9 of 10 over

over cleared6

RBRico Dowdle Rush att 6.5 · PIT @ NO · PITopened at 7.5

Market 53.8%Second Opinion 84.4%

over+30.6Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean cleared

9 of 10 over

over cleared9

RBRico Dowdle Rush att 7.5 · PIT @ NO · PITopened at 7.5line moved after the lean

Market 49.0%Second Opinion 79.1%

over+30.1Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean cleared

6 of 10 over

over cleared9

243 leans published for week 7: 235 graded, 0 upcoming, 0 live, 8 void. On this read, 128 cleared, 107 missed.

Receipts: every lean the model has published this season, graded, none removed →

How the board is read

Market P(over): median of each benchmark book’s de-vigged price at the main line · Second Opinion: baseline-usage-0.4+03571d4710af

Line: the main line AT THIS READ: the listed threshold whose median de-vigged over probability across DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM is closest to 0.5. is_main is a property of the read, not of the market; it is false only on a row kept for a published lean whose line the main line moved off.
Gap: model minus market, probability points, signed
Lean: over at gap >= +T, under at gap <= -T
Longshot: market P(over) outside [0.15, 0.85]; multiplicative de-vig is biased there - to revisit with Shin or power de-vig once settled data exists
Void: market_pulled | inactive | no_snap - a voided lean stays on the ledger

Threshold log (appended, never edited, so every lean is graded against the threshold it was published under): 4 points from 2026-09-01 (decided 2026-09-24 (audit 5.3, unit a-26) before the first board; effective from season start because no board read predates it).

Last read Tue 9:24 AM ET · week 7Break-even at −110 is 52.4%Nothing leaves the board when it misses

Not a sportsbook · no wagers accepted · nothing here is advice · read Tue 9:24 AM ET · 197 reads this week · model baseline-usage-0.4+03571d4710af · board/nfl/2026/wk07

453 lines posted.The model leans on 243.

A gap of 4 points or more between the model and the market.

453 lines posted.
The model leans on 243.