Lines · 2026 · Week 7 · read Tue 9:24 AM ET

453 lines posted.
The model leans on 243.

Every posted line this week, the market's price, the Second Opinion beside it, and what leans that size have done before. Nothing leaves the board when it misses.

The site's current period is week 8; this is the board for week 7, the newest one published.

Leans published, week 7

243

235 graded · 0 open · 8 void

Leans cleared, this read

54%

128 of 235 · 95% 48%–61%

Break-even at −110

52.4%

what a lean at that price needs

What a lean is

A gap of 4 points or more between the model and the market.

First opinionThe market’s price

Second OpinionThe model’s

It is published so it can be graded, not because disagreeing has paid. Every lean stays on the record, cleared or missed.

From the board index · board/nfl/2026/wk07/index.json

Player props

68 of 453 lines shown; 243 carry a lean, at a gap of 4 points or more. Each row sets the market’s chance of the over beside the Second Opinion’s.

Lean

All Leans No lean

Market

All Rec yds Rec Rush att

Hide settled

Game and order

Rows 1–40 of 68 · page 1 of 2

Settled14 games, graded where the line stood at its last read before kickoff · 68 lines · 40 of them on this page

QBCaleb Williams Rush att 4.5 · NE @ CHI · CHI

Market 47.3% −2.1 since openSecond Opinion 42.6%

under−4.7Leans this size 47% [41%–52%] · n 315lean missed

4 of 10 over

over cleared5

RBD'Andre Swift Rush att 14.5 · NE @ CHI · CHI

Market 50.1% −3.9 since openSecond Opinion 45.5%

under−4.6Leans this size 47% [41%–52%] · n 315lean missed

6 of 10 over

over cleared22

QBDrake Maye Rush att 5.5 · NE @ CHI · NE

Market 49.2% +0.6 since openSecond Opinion 43.3%

under−5.9Leans this size 47% [41%–52%] · n 315lean cleared

4 of 10 over

over missed4

RBRhamondre Stevenson Rush att 10.5 · NE @ CHI · NE

Market 52.0% +0.1 since openSecond Opinion 36.8%

under−15.3Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean cleared

4 of 10 over

over missed6

RBRoschon Johnson Rush att 6.5 · NE @ CHI · CHIopened at 6.5

Market 55.7%Second Opinion 18.2%

under−37.5Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean cleared

1 of 10 over

over missed2

RBRoschon Johnson Rush att 7.5 · NE @ CHI · CHIopened at 6.5line moved after the lean

Market 44.1%Second Opinion 15.0%

under−29.1Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean cleared

1 of 10 over

over missed2

RBTreVeyon Henderson Rush att 6.5 · NE @ CHI · NEopened at 7.5

Market 46.5%Second Opinion 78.1%

over+31.6Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean missed

8 of 10 over

over missed3

RBTreVeyon Henderson Rush att 7.5 · NE @ CHI · NEopened at 7.5line moved after the lean

Market 46.8%Second Opinion 71.1%

over+24.3Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean missed

7 of 10 over

over missed3

RBJaylen Warren Rush att 14.5 · PIT @ NO · PITopened at 13.5

Market 51.2%Second Opinion 40.9%

under−10.4Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean missed

3 of 10 over

over cleared18

RBKendre Miller Rush att 11.5 · PIT @ NO · NOopened at 12.5

Market 48.8%Second Opinion 22.0%

under−26.8Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean cleared

1 of 10 over

over missed8

RBKendre Miller Rush att 12.5 · PIT @ NO · NOopened at 12.5line moved after the lean

Market 48.2%Second Opinion 18.2%

under−30.1Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean cleared

1 of 10 over

over missed8

RBRico Dowdle Rush att 6.5 · PIT @ NO · PITopened at 7.5

Market 53.8%Second Opinion 84.4%

over+30.6Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean cleared

9 of 10 over

over cleared9

RBRico Dowdle Rush att 7.5 · PIT @ NO · PITopened at 7.5line moved after the lean

Market 49.0%Second Opinion 79.1%

over+30.1Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean cleared

6 of 10 over

over cleared9

QBTyler Shough Rush att 3.5 · PIT @ NO · NO

Market 44.1% −2.6 since openSecond Opinion 43.0%

no lean−1.1no lean history

5 of 10 over

over missed3

RBChase Brown Rush att 10.5 · CIN @ BAL · CINopened at 13.5

Market 53.5%Second Opinion 72.0%

over+18.5Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean cleared

9 of 10 over

over cleared11

RBDerrick Henry Rush att 18.5 · CIN @ BAL · BALopened at 19.5

Market 52.3%Second Opinion 36.4%

under−15.9Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean cleared

6 of 10 over

over missed17

RBDerrick Henry Rush att 19.5 · CIN @ BAL · BALopened at 19.5line moved after the lean

Market 48.0%Second Opinion 31.1%

under−16.8Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean cleared

6 of 10 over

over missed17

RBSamaje Perine Rush att 6.5 · CIN @ BAL · CINopened at 6.5line moved after the lean

Market 47.8%Second Opinion 36.2%

under−11.6Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean cleared

4 of 10 over

over missed4

RBSamaje Perine Rush att 7.5 · CIN @ BAL · CINopened at 6.5

Market 53.6%Second Opinion 30.2%

under−23.4Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean cleared

3 of 10 over

over missed4

RBSamaje Perine Rush att 8.5 · CIN @ BAL · CINopened at 6.5line moved after the lean

Market 44.7%Second Opinion 25.1%

under−19.6Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean cleared

2 of 10 over

over missed4

QBTyler Huntley Rush att 5.5 · CIN @ BAL · BAL

Market 48.3% −0.8 since openSecond Opinion 23.1%

under−25.2Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean cleared

4 of 10 over

over missed3

RBQuinshon Judkins Rush att 13.5 · CLE @ TEN · CLEopened at 14.5

Market 53.5%Second Opinion 57.6%

over+4.1Leans this size 47% [41%–52%] · n 315lean cleared

6 of 10 over

over cleared17

RBTony Pollard Rush att 16.5 · CLE @ TEN · TENopened at 16.5line moved after the lean

Market 53.3%Second Opinion 31.4%

under−22.0Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean missed

4 of 10 over

over cleared25

RBTony Pollard Rush att 17.5 · CLE @ TEN · TENopened at 16.5

Market 52.2%Second Opinion 25.8%

under−26.4Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean missed

3 of 10 over

over cleared25

RBAaron Jones Rush att 9.5 · IND @ MIN · MINopened at 10.5

Market 53.3%Second Opinion 71.4%

over+18.1Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean missed

9 of 10 over

over missed8

RBAaron Jones Rush att 10.5 · IND @ MIN · MINopened at 10.5line moved after the lean

Market 46.9%Second Opinion 64.9%

over+18.0Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean missed

9 of 10 over

over missed8

RBJonathan Taylor Rush att 17.5 · IND @ MIN · INDopened at 18.5

Market 48.0%Second Opinion 52.6%

over+4.5Leans this size 47% [41%–52%] · n 315lean cleared

7 of 10 over

over cleared18

RBJordan Mason Rush att 11.5 · IND @ MIN · MINopened at 11.5line moved after the lean

Market 54.1%Second Opinion 31.3%

under−22.8Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean missed

2 of 10 over

over cleared15

RBJordan Mason Rush att 12.5 · IND @ MIN · MINopened at 11.5

Market 46.1%Second Opinion 26.1%

under−20.0Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean missed

2 of 10 over

over cleared15

QBKyler Murray Rush att 5.5 · IND @ MIN · MIN

Market 43.5% −0.8 since openSecond Opinion 30.3%

under−13.2Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean cleared

5 of 10 over

over missed5

RBBraelon Allen Rush att 18.5 · MIA @ NYJ · NYJ

Market 50.0% +2.0 since openSecond Opinion 8.5%

under−41.5Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean cleared

1 of 10 over

over missed17

QBMalik Willis Rush att 6.5 · MIA @ NYJ · MIA

Market 49.0% +0.6 since openSecond Opinion 25.5%

under−23.4Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean missed

4 of 10 over

over cleared8

RBOllie Gordon II Rush att 13.5 · MIA @ NYJ · MIAopened at 13.5line moved after the lean

Market 54.0%Second Opinion 11.7%

under−42.3Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean missed

2 of 10 over

over cleared25

RBOllie Gordon II Rush att 14.5 · MIA @ NYJ · MIAopened at 13.5

Market 46.5%Second Opinion 9.8%

under−36.8Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean missed

2 of 10 over

over cleared25

QBJ.J. McCarthy Rush att 5.5 · NYG @ HOU · NYG

Market 44.5% −3.6 since openSecond Opinion 24.4%

under−20.1Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean cleared

2 of 10 over

over missed1

RBWoody Marks Rush att 14.5 · NYG @ HOU · HOUopened at 14.5line moved after the lean

Market 53.4%Second Opinion 30.8%

under−22.6Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean missed

4 of 10 over

over cleared19

RBWoody Marks Rush att 16.5 · NYG @ HOU · HOUopened at 14.5

Market 53.1%Second Opinion 21.9%

under−31.2Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean missed

2 of 10 over

over cleared19

RBBijan Robinson Rush att 17.5 · SF @ ATL · ATLopened at 17.5line moved after the lean

Market 51.7%Second Opinion 40.9%

under−10.7Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean missed

5 of 10 over

over cleared20

RBBijan Robinson Rush att 18.5 · SF @ ATL · ATLopened at 17.5line moved after the lean

Market 53.0%Second Opinion 34.6%

under−18.4Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean missed

5 of 10 over

over cleared20

RBBijan Robinson Rush att 19.5 · SF @ ATL · ATLopened at 17.5

Market 50.6%Second Opinion 28.9%

under−21.7Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean missed

3 of 10 over

over cleared20

243 leans published for week 7: 235 graded, 0 upcoming, 0 live, 8 void. On this read, 128 cleared, 107 missed.

Receipts: every lean the model has published this season, graded, none removed →

How the board is read

Market P(over): median of each benchmark book’s de-vigged price at the main line · Second Opinion: baseline-usage-0.4+03571d4710af

Line: the main line AT THIS READ: the listed threshold whose median de-vigged over probability across DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM is closest to 0.5. is_main is a property of the read, not of the market; it is false only on a row kept for a published lean whose line the main line moved off.
Gap: model minus market, probability points, signed
Lean: over at gap >= +T, under at gap <= -T
Longshot: market P(over) outside [0.15, 0.85]; multiplicative de-vig is biased there - to revisit with Shin or power de-vig once settled data exists
Void: market_pulled | inactive | no_snap - a voided lean stays on the ledger

Threshold log (appended, never edited, so every lean is graded against the threshold it was published under): 4 points from 2026-09-01 (decided 2026-09-24 (audit 5.3, unit a-26) before the first board; effective from season start because no board read predates it).

Last read Tue 9:24 AM ET · week 7Break-even at −110 is 52.4%Nothing leaves the board when it misses

Not a sportsbook · no wagers accepted · nothing here is advice · read Tue 9:24 AM ET · 197 reads this week · model baseline-usage-0.4+03571d4710af · board/nfl/2026/wk07

453 lines posted.The model leans on 243.

A gap of 4 points or more between the model and the market.

453 lines posted.
The model leans on 243.