Lines · 2026 · Week 7 · read Tue 9:24 AM ET

453 lines posted.
The model leans on 243.

Every posted line this week, the market's price, the Second Opinion beside it, and what leans that size have done before. Nothing leaves the board when it misses.

The site's current period is week 8; this is the board for week 7, the newest one published.

Leans published, week 7

243

235 graded · 0 open · 8 void

Leans cleared, this read

54%

128 of 235 · 95% 48%–61%

Break-even at −110

52.4%

what a lean at that price needs

What a lean is

A gap of 4 points or more between the model and the market.

First opinionThe market’s price

Second OpinionThe model’s

It is published so it can be graded, not because disagreeing has paid. Every lean stays on the record, cleared or missed.

From the board index · board/nfl/2026/wk07/index.json

Player props

453 of 453 lines posted; 243 carry a lean, at a gap of 4 points or more. Each row sets the market’s chance of the over beside the Second Opinion’s.

Lean

All Leans No lean

Market

All Rec yds Rec Rush att

Hide settled

Game and order

Rows 1–40 of 453 · page 1 of 12

Settled14 games, graded where the line stood at its last read before kickoff · 453 lines · 40 of them on this page

WRA.J. Brown Rec yds 69.5 · NE @ CHI · NEopened at 67.5

Market 50.2%Second Opinion not priced

not pricedno lean history

4 of 10 over

over missed48

WRA.J. Brown Rec 5.5 · NE @ CHI · NE

Market 44.4% +0.9 since openSecond Opinion 31.9%

under−12.6Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862lean cleared

5 of 10 over

over missed3

QBCaleb Williams Rush att 4.5 · NE @ CHI · CHI

Market 47.3% −2.1 since openSecond Opinion 42.6%

under−4.7Leans this size 47% [41%–52%] · n 315lean missed

4 of 10 over

over cleared5

TECole Kmet Rec yds 9.5 · NE @ CHI · CHIopened at 8.5

Market 50.0%Second Opinion not priced

not pricedno lean history

6 of 10 over

over cleared28

TECole Kmet Rec 1.5 · NE @ CHI · CHI

Market 34.5% −0.3 since openSecond Opinion 45.9%

over+11.3Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862lean cleared

7 of 10 over

over cleared3

TEColston Loveland Rec yds 43.5 · NE @ CHI · CHIopened at 44.5

Market 50.0%Second Opinion not priced

not pricedno lean history

5 of 10 over

over cleared69

TEColston Loveland Rec 3.5 · NE @ CHI · CHIopened at 4.5line moved after the lean

Market 60.1%Second Opinion 44.6%

under−15.5Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862lean missed

6 of 10 over

over cleared7

TEColston Loveland Rec 4.5 · NE @ CHI · CHIopened at 4.5

Market 41.9%Second Opinion 30.2%

under−11.7Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862lean missed

4 of 10 over

over cleared7

RBD'Andre Swift Rec yds 21.5 · NE @ CHI · CHIopened at 19.5

Market 49.4%Second Opinion not priced

not pricedno lean history

4 of 10 over

over missed12

RBD'Andre Swift Rec 2.5 · NE @ CHI · CHI

Market 55.8% −0.3 since openSecond Opinion 41.8%

under−14.0Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862lean missed

3 of 10 over

over cleared4

RBD'Andre Swift Rush att 14.5 · NE @ CHI · CHI

Market 50.1% −3.9 since openSecond Opinion 45.5%

under−4.6Leans this size 47% [41%–52%] · n 315lean missed

6 of 10 over

over cleared22

WRDeMario Douglas Rec yds 38.5 · NE @ CHI · NEopened at 30.5

Market 50.0%Second Opinion not priced

not pricedno lean history

2 of 10 over

over missed23

WRDeMario Douglas Rec 3.5 · NE @ CHI · NE

Market 46.4% +6.2 since openSecond Opinion 24.3%

under−22.1Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862lean cleared

3 of 10 over

over missed3

QBDrake Maye Rush att 5.5 · NE @ CHI · NE

Market 49.2% +0.6 since openSecond Opinion 43.3%

under−5.9Leans this size 47% [41%–52%] · n 315lean cleared

4 of 10 over

over missed4

WREfton Chism III Rec yds 17.5 · NE @ CHI · NEopened at 19.5

Market 50.0%Second Opinion not priced

not pricedno lean history

4 of 10 over

over missed16

WREfton Chism III Rec 1.5 · NE @ CHI · NE

Market 50.8% −10.3 since openSecond Opinion 24.4%

under−26.5Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862lean cleared

3 of 10 over

over missed1

TEEli Raridon Rec yds 15.5 · NE @ CHI · NEopened at 13.5

Market 50.0%Second Opinion not priced

not pricedno lean history

2 of 5 over

over cleared56

TEEli Raridon Rec 1.5 · NE @ CHI · NE

Market 46.2% +2.1 since openSecond Opinion 38.3%

under−7.9Leans this size 48% [45%–51%] · n 1,059lean missed

1 of 5 over

over cleared3

TEHunter Henry Rec yds 35.5 · NE @ CHI · NEopened at 33.5

Market 50.2%Second Opinion not priced

not pricedno lean history

6 of 10 over

over cleared71

TEHunter Henry Rec 3.5 · NE @ CHI · NE

Market 43.3% +0.8 since openSecond Opinion 44.8%

no lean+1.5no lean history

4 of 10 over

over cleared7

WRKalif Raymond Rec yds 25.5 · NE @ CHI · CHIopened at 25.5

Market 50.0%Second Opinion not priced

not pricedno lean history

5 of 10 over

over missed0

WRKalif Raymond Rec 2.5 · NE @ CHI · CHI

Market 49.0% −3.0 since openSecond Opinion 33.7%

under−15.3Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862lean cleared

6 of 10 over

over missed0

WRKyle Williams Rec yds 19.5 · NE @ CHI · NE

Market 50.0% −0.5 since openSecond Opinion not priced

not pricedno lean history

4 of 10 over

over missed0

WRKyle Williams Rec 1.5 · NE @ CHI · NE

Market 38.7% −1.2 since openSecond Opinion 22.1%

under−16.6Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862lean cleared

3 of 10 over

over missed0

WRLuther Burden III Rec yds 56.5 · NE @ CHI · CHIopened at 55.5

Market 50.0%Second Opinion not priced

not pricedno lean history

7 of 10 over

over cleared130

WRLuther Burden III Rec 4.5 · NE @ CHI · CHI

Market 55.5% +4.5 since openSecond Opinion 36.4%

under−19.1Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862lean cleared

5 of 10 over

over missed4

Chance to clear each threshold

Last 10 games: the share at or above each threshold. Ten games at most: a small sample, drawn as one.

Market 55.5% Second Opinion 36.4%— last ten

The read prices the main line only.

This line, game by game

Last 10 against today’s 4.5, not the line posted that week · cleared 5 of 10.

Cleared Missed– not recorded

this season 3 of 6 · career 5 of 21 against 4.5 · 9 of 16 against each game's own closing line (2023-2025 sportsbook closes).

What leans this size have done

Gaps of 8+ points, walk-forward: each lean made with constants fitted only on earlier seasons.

Leans: 6,862; over 852 games
Cleared: 53%; 95% 51%–54%
Return at the price: −1%; 95% −3% to +2%

At this lean’s price (+112) a bet needs 47.2% to break even. The cleared interval sits above it.

wilson_95 · game_block_bootstrap_2000 · research/board_bands.py

Line since open

Opened at 4.5, unchanged.

Mon, Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET 51.0% → Thu, Oct 22, 6:45 PM ET 55.5%

Each book at 4.5, as it last showed it. Market P(over) is the median of the de-vigged prices across 3 books.
Book	Over	Under	P(over)	Hold
draftkings	−143	+112	55.5%	6.0%
fanduel	−148	+112	55.9%	6.9%
betmgm	−135	+100	53.5%	7.4%

NE @ CHI · kickoff Thu, Oct 22, 8:15 PM ET

RBRhamondre Stevenson Rec yds 17.5 · NE @ CHI · NEopened at 17.5

Market 50.0%Second Opinion not priced

not pricedno lean history

7 of 10 over

over cleared93

RBRhamondre Stevenson Rec 2.5 · NE @ CHI · NE

Market 50.0% −4.2 since openSecond Opinion 41.6%

under−8.3Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862lean missed

6 of 10 over

over cleared5

RBRhamondre Stevenson Rush att 10.5 · NE @ CHI · NE

Market 52.0% +0.1 since openSecond Opinion 36.8%

under−15.3Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean cleared

4 of 10 over

over missed6

WRRome Odunze Rec yds 44.5 · NE @ CHI · CHIopened at 45.5

Market 50.0%Second Opinion not priced

not pricedno lean history

4 of 10 over

over cleared69

WRRome Odunze Rec 3.5 · NE @ CHI · CHI

Market 43.1% −0.2 since openSecond Opinion 44.8%

no lean+1.6no lean history

2 of 10 over

over cleared4

RBRoschon Johnson Rec yds 6.5 · NE @ CHI · CHIopened at 7.5

Market 51.5%Second Opinion not priced

not pricedno lean history

3 of 10 over

over missed0

RBRoschon Johnson Rec 1.5 · NE @ CHI · CHI

Market 42.5% −0.6 since openSecond Opinion 18.9%

under−23.6Leans this size 53% [51%–54%] · n 6,862lean cleared

2 of 10 over

over missed0

RBRoschon Johnson Rush att 6.5 · NE @ CHI · CHIopened at 6.5

Market 55.7%Second Opinion 18.2%

under−37.5Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean cleared

1 of 10 over

over missed2

RBRoschon Johnson Rush att 7.5 · NE @ CHI · CHIopened at 6.5line moved after the lean

Market 44.1%Second Opinion 15.0%

under−29.1Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean cleared

1 of 10 over

over missed2

RBTreVeyon Henderson Rec yds 3.5 · NE @ CHI · NEopened at 3.5

Market 51.0%Second Opinion not priced

not pricedno lean history

6 of 10 over

over cleared14

RBTreVeyon Henderson Rec 0.5 · NE @ CHI · NE

Market 62.5% +0.4 since openSecond Opinion 66.6%

over+4.1Leans this size 50% [47%–53%] · n 1,084lean cleared

6 of 10 over

over cleared2

RBTreVeyon Henderson Rush att 6.5 · NE @ CHI · NEopened at 7.5

Market 46.5%Second Opinion 78.1%

over+31.6Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean missed

8 of 10 over

over missed3

RBTreVeyon Henderson Rush att 7.5 · NE @ CHI · NEopened at 7.5line moved after the lean

Market 46.8%Second Opinion 71.1%

over+24.3Leans this size 55% [53%–56%] · n 3,602lean missed

7 of 10 over

over missed3

RBAlvin Kamara Rec yds 12.5 · PIT @ NO · NO

Market 49.4% −0.6 since openSecond Opinion not priced

not pricedno lean history

4 of 10 over

over cleared57

243 leans published for week 7: 235 graded, 0 upcoming, 0 live, 8 void. On this read, 128 cleared, 107 missed.

Receipts: every lean the model has published this season, graded, none removed →

How the board is read

Market P(over): median of each benchmark book’s de-vigged price at the main line · Second Opinion: baseline-usage-0.4+03571d4710af

Line: the main line AT THIS READ: the listed threshold whose median de-vigged over probability across DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM is closest to 0.5. is_main is a property of the read, not of the market; it is false only on a row kept for a published lean whose line the main line moved off.
Gap: model minus market, probability points, signed
Lean: over at gap >= +T, under at gap <= -T
Longshot: market P(over) outside [0.15, 0.85]; multiplicative de-vig is biased there - to revisit with Shin or power de-vig once settled data exists
Void: market_pulled | inactive | no_snap - a voided lean stays on the ledger

Threshold log (appended, never edited, so every lean is graded against the threshold it was published under): 4 points from 2026-09-01 (decided 2026-09-24 (audit 5.3, unit a-26) before the first board; effective from season start because no board read predates it).

Last read Tue 9:24 AM ET · week 7Break-even at −110 is 52.4%Nothing leaves the board when it misses

Not a sportsbook · no wagers accepted · nothing here is advice · read Tue 9:24 AM ET · 197 reads this week · model baseline-usage-0.4+03571d4710af · board/nfl/2026/wk07

453 lines posted.The model leans on 243.

A gap of 4 points or more between the model and the market.

Chance to clear each threshold

This line, game by game

What leans this size have done

Line since open

453 lines posted.
The model leans on 243.