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NFLTeamsBuf

BUF · AFC East

Buffalo Bills

5–1AFC East · 1st1999–2026 in the record459 games with a final score

2026, every week, played or not

6 OF 17 PLAYED
1W
2W
3W
4L
5W
6W
7B
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
WinLossNot yet playedBye

Overview

NEXT · WEEK 8vs Baltimore RavensLineBUF −3.5Total53.5Sunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET · opposing coach Jesse Minter. Line and total from the nflverse schedule file, capture time not recorded.
LAST RESULT · WEEK 6W 33–30@ Las Vegas RaidersBUF33LV30Margin +3. Listed line −5.5; against-the-spread results come once lines are confirmed as closing.
MARGIN · 2026+4.3points a gameWidest +10 against Detroit Lions; narrowest −3 against New England Patriots. Eleven games still to fill in.
Chance to win the division

AFC East, week 7 the last complete. Showing the model's chance.

  • BUF76%
  • NE24%
  • MIA<2%
  • NYJ<2%

Season path

197 points for through week 6 of 2026: 6 of 17 games, every week drawn.

0200400600W1W2W3W4W5W6W7W8W9W10W11W12W13W14W15W16W17W183677101127164197PACE 558
Through week 6197
Per game32.8
17-game pace558
PlayedPace: the 2026 average carried forward. Arithmetic, not a forecast.Not yet playedBye, week 7
How this is computed

Cumulative points for across the 18-week season, read from this team's own schedule. The axis is drawn complete from week 1: the weeks carrying a result are solid, and every week after them is in the unplayed empty state.

The dashed line is the pace: the season's average per game so far, times each game still on the schedule, stepped at that game's own week. It assumes nothing but that the rest of the season looks like the part already played (arithmetic, not a forecast), and it moves only when a result lands. Wins are not carried forward this way: the win rate so far, times the games left, draws every unbeaten team winning out.

On the Wins tab the dashed line is the season model instead: its mean cumulative wins, week by week, with the central 80% and 95% of its simulations as bands. Each game left carries the model's chance to win it.

Scored walk-forward on 768 team-seasons, 2002 to 2025 (12,446 forecasts), the projected final wins missed by 1.76 wins, root mean square, against 3.08 for the pace line and 1.99 for the standings with every game left a coin flip. With whole seasons resampled, the model is better than the pace line and better than the coin-flip standings.

Walk-forward, the central 80% band held the real final record 89.5% of the time, consistent with the 90.1% of simulations inside it.

Schedule and results

6 of 17 games in 2026 carry a final score.

WEEK 1Sep 13@ Houston TexansW 36–31 +5LINE −1.5 · O/U 44.5DeMeco Ryans
WEEK 2Sep 17vs Detroit LionsW 41–31 +10LINE −5.5 · O/U 54.5Dan Campbell
WEEK 3Sep 27vs Los Angeles ChargersW 24–16 +8LINE −7 · O/U 50.5Jim Harbaugh
WEEK 4Oct 4vs New England PatriotsL 26–29 −3LINE −7 · O/U 49.5Mike Vrabel
WEEK 5Oct 12@ Los Angeles RamsW 37–34 +3LINE +3.5 · O/U 55.5Sean McVay
WEEK 6Oct 18@ Las Vegas RaidersW 33–30 +3LINE −5.5 · O/U 53.5Klint Kubliak
WEEK 7

Bye

WEEK 8Nov 1vs Baltimore RavensNot yet playedLINE −3.5 · O/U 53.5Jesse Minter
WEEK 9Nov 9@ Minnesota VikingsNot yet playedKevin O'Connell
WEEK 10Nov 15@ New York JetsNot yet playedAaron Glenn
WEEK 11Nov 22vs Miami DolphinsNot yet playedJeff Hafley
WEEK 12Nov 26vs Kansas City ChiefsNot yet playedAndy Reid
WEEK 13Dec 6@ New England PatriotsNot yet playedMike Vrabel
WEEK 14Dec 13@ Green Bay PackersNot yet playedMatt LaFleur
WEEK 15Dec 19vs Chicago BearsNot yet playedBen Johnson
WEEK 16Dec 25@ Denver BroncosNot yet playedSean Payton
WEEK 17Jan 3@ Miami DolphinsNot yet playedJeff Hafley
WEEK 18Jan 10vs New York JetsNot yet playedAaron Glenn

Result against the spread: coming once the schedule's lines are confirmed as closing lines. Line and total come from the nflverse schedule file; capture time is not recorded, so neither is confirmed as the closing line.

Line and total: nflverse schedule file, capture time not recorded, not confirmed as the closing line.

How this is computed

Games played before a relocation are shown under the current franchise.

Margin is points for minus points against, from the row's own two scores. The line is from this team's side: the favourite carries the minus sign.

Offense and defense, by unit

32.8 points a game in 2026, over 6 games.

Points / game32.82026 · 6 GAMES
Pass + rush attempts / game57.82026 · 6 GAMES
Neutral situations · 2025POINT AND INTERVAL · N = 17
Neutral pace, seconds per play31.2s 30.0s–32.5s
Neutral plays per game32.6 26.9–37.9

No 2026 value is published yet for Neutral pace, seconds per play, Neutral plays per game, so each is shown for the season named beside it.

Coming once the analytics export carries per-team play-by-play

Neutral early-down pass rateEPA / play, offenseEPA / play allowed, defensePressure rate generatedPressure rate allowedSack-or-hit rate generated (not pressure)

Rank of 32 is not drawn: an order over teams whose figures overlap within their uncertainty asserts a separation the figures do not support.

How this is computed

Season totals over the games they were recorded across, from this team's own file.

The rows under them are the analytics export's, one value per team per season, each with its interval and n, the number of games it rests on. Under 5 is shown muted and marked: the interval is honest, and too wide to read. The interval's construction is the file's own. Rows of one format share one axis; rows of different formats never do.

Neutral pace, seconds per play. seconds between snaps within a drive, neutral situations only

Neutral plays per game. run and pass plays in neutral situations, per game; still partly a scoreboard measure - a team blown out weekly has fewer by construction

Roster · usage share

James Cook leads the offense with 39% of the team's targets and carries in 2026.

RB 46%WR 27%QB 15%TE 12%
RBJames Cook639%9%66%67%
QBJosh Allen615%1%27%100%
WRKhalil Shakir610%20%0%63%
TEDalton Kincaid69%18%0%68%
WRKeon Coleman67%15%0%68%
WRDJ Moore47%13%1%53%
RBTy Johnson44%8%1%24%
WRJosh Palmer43%7%0%38%
TEDawson Knox63%6%1%69%
RBRay Davis52%2%3%12%
WRSkyler Bell21%2%0%53%
TEJackson Hawes30%1%0%40%
RBFrank Gore Jr.10%0%1%19%
WRTrent Sherfield10%0%0%11%
TEKeleki Latu50%0%0%6%
WRGreg Dortch60%0%0%3%

Offensive line, 6 players at 75% to 100% snap share: Connor McGovern, Dion Dawkins, O'Cyrus Torrence, Spencer Brown, Tylan Grable, Alec Anderson. 29 defensive and 2 special-teams players are on the roster and not drawn. The file carries offensive snap share only, and a column of zeros would be a false figure about each of them.

How this is computed

Volume, not efficiency. On offense each player is ranked by opportunity share: the player's targets plus carries, over the team's targets plus carries, summed over the season. The team file carries no count of plays, so the whole is the team's own opportunities, and a team's shares add up to all of them. The stacked bar is those shares, player by player, each in its position's colour; a row's bar is drawn against the leader's.

Linemen carry snaps and no targets or carries, so they are one line with the spread of their offensive snap share. A player at any position with a target or a carry is ranked. Snap share on this page is offensive snaps only, so it is not shown for defenders or specialists at all.

PPR/G: each game this player's row in the components table carries for this team, scored under the PPR preset, summed, and divided by those games. A player the table does not carry has a dash, not a zero.

Offensive splits by season

Per-game figures, regular season: 28 seasons, 1999–2026.

Points per game, by season

1999–2026 · 2026 IS SIX GAMES
20.0'9916.6'0115.2'0316.9'0515.8'0716.1'0923.3'1121.2'1323.7'1518.9'1719.6'1928.4'2126.5'2328.3'2532.8'26
Offense, per game
SeasonG
2026626.7250.71.529.3148.82.328.519.0250.71.532.80.7
20251728.2234.21.732.2159.61.829.120.2234.21.728.30.6
20241729.1231.61.828.9131.21.930.619.4231.61.830.90.4
20231732.1253.31.730.1130.11.334.122.6253.31.726.51.1
20221634.4268.22.226.9139.50.935.922.6268.22.228.40.9
20211736.6261.82.127.1129.91.238.524.4261.82.128.40.9
20201635.8299.12.525.7107.71.037.325.6299.12.531.30.7
20191630.3217.31.329.1128.40.832.118.7217.31.319.60.8
20181629.9190.80.829.3124.00.931.116.9190.80.816.81.4
20171629.3191.61.030.4126.10.829.718.0191.61.018.90.6
20161628.7203.11.130.8164.41.829.617.9203.11.124.90.4
20151628.9225.01.431.8152.01.229.118.4225.01.423.70.6
20141635.8241.01.425.192.60.436.222.7241.01.421.40.8
20131632.4210.81.034.1144.20.932.618.7210.81.021.20.9
20121631.8214.41.527.6138.60.831.919.3214.41.521.51.1
20111635.6241.11.524.4120.10.836.122.3241.11.523.31.6
20101632.1210.21.525.1107.50.432.418.5210.21.517.71.3
20091627.2174.31.126.6116.70.427.616.0174.31.116.11.2
200816—206.40.927.4115.11.029.919.3206.40.921.00.9
200716—177.60.828.0112.50.527.816.4177.60.815.80.9
200616—190.61.226.397.00.627.016.8190.61.218.80.9
200516—178.31.126.8100.30.428.816.9178.31.116.91.0
200416—189.51.330.1118.10.928.816.4189.51.324.71.1
200316—191.80.726.7103.80.831.418.3191.80.715.21.1
20021637.6272.81.524.399.81.138.323.6272.81.523.70.9
20011634.9242.01.226.7112.60.636.421.4242.01.216.61.4
20001631.1232.11.328.4115.40.632.118.6232.11.319.70.6
19991631.6217.41.332.4127.50.832.118.1217.41.320.01.0

Tgt is not recorded for 2003–2008.

The record carries 28 seasons, 1999–2026; the splits cover all 28.

Defense, per game
SeasonG
2026628.537.70.837.24.31.87.20.56.00.70.00.0
20251721.533.91.125.94.92.15.40.83.60.80.10.0
2025 POST228.537.00.518.54.00.53.01.58.00.00.00.0
20241721.635.55.925.15.52.25.50.93.51.10.10.1
2024 POST321.334.31.021.74.72.05.30.31.01.00.00.0
20231718.335.36.919.84.73.16.91.14.60.80.10.0
2023 POST222.028.03.023.01.00.54.00.54.52.00.00.0
20221617.937.17.420.25.02.56.11.15.60.70.10.1
2022 POST229.035.59.020.04.02.57.01.07.50.00.00.0
20211717.034.17.118.74.22.45.41.14.70.70.10.0
2021 POST229.537.59.524.54.02.54.51.02.00.50.00.0
20201623.439.56.218.33.62.45.80.94.80.90.10.0
2020 POST321.739.75.722.33.31.74.00.35.01.00.30.0
20191616.236.47.218.95.32.85.80.95.21.00.00.1
2019 POST122.042.07.027.07.07.012.00.02.01.00.00.0
20181623.439.26.217.94.82.35.41.04.61.30.00.0
20171622.440.97.221.64.41.64.41.15.11.00.10.0
2017 POST110.038.03.019.05.02.05.00.01.01.00.00.0
20161623.637.68.621.13.72.44.90.84.60.70.10.0
20151622.438.16.115.42.81.34.71.15.80.60.10.0
20141618.138.69.119.05.53.46.21.24.70.90.00.0
20131624.337.811.823.65.33.66.21.45.70.80.10.0
20121627.240.67.518.03.82.34.10.84.91.30.10.1
20111627.139.59.119.4—1.83.51.34.40.90.30.1
20101626.636.118.826.6—1.73.40.75.00.90.10.0
20091620.436.519.922.6—2.14.41.85.10.80.10.0
20081621.438.111.014.4—1.43.30.64.90.90.20.0
20071622.140.911.016.3—1.43.91.15.20.80.10.1
20061619.435.616.223.3—2.13.80.85.41.00.10.0
20051622.937.913.922.4—2.4—1.14.81.00.10.1
20041617.833.113.823.8—2.9—1.55.21.30.30.1
20031617.436.413.920.2—2.3—0.64.50.90.10.1
20021624.835.811.818.92.71.91.60.64.00.60.10.0
20011626.342.710.517.84.82.32.50.74.11.10.30.0
20001621.933.412.717.43.32.62.00.93.81.10.10.0
19991614.336.68.913.52.82.32.40.84.60.60.00.0
1999 POST122.046.013.021.04.03.04.01.02.01.00.00.0

TFL is not recorded for 2003–2011. QB Hits is not recorded for 2003–2005.

Yards allowed per game: not in the export, so the defensive table carries points allowed and the counting stats only.

How this is computed

Season totals divided by the games they were recorded over, each unit on its own. A rate the source publishes as a rate is left as one. The chart draws the regular seasons only.

Head coaches

28 seasons

8 head coaches across 28 seasons.

SeasonHead coach
2026Sean McDermott
2025Sean McDermott
2024Sean McDermott
2023Sean McDermott
2022Sean McDermott
2021Sean McDermott
2020Sean McDermott
2019Sean McDermott
2018Sean McDermott
2017Sean McDermott
2016Rex Ryan
2015Rex Ryan
2014Doug Marrone
2013Doug Marrone
2012Chan Gailey
2011Chan Gailey
2010Chan Gailey
2009Dick Jauron
2008Dick Jauron
2007Dick Jauron
2006Dick Jauron
2005Mike Mularkey
2004Mike Mularkey
2003Gregg Williams
2002Gregg Williams
2001Gregg Williams
2000Wade Phillips
1999Wade Phillips

In the news

470 scheduled · 459 played · 53 roster rowsLines not confirmed as closingData through week 7, 2026Generated Tue, Oct 27, 9:27 AM ET