Does it persist: receiving yards volume against efficiency

Source

pbp; n counts independent players

Bound column

starts 2009: pbp.receiver_player_id|incomplete_pass is not usable before it; fit receiving yards ~ targets + air_yards, OLS per season x position group over player-weeks; R^2 WR median 0.581 (0.548-0.651, 18 seasons); TE median 0.638 (0.584-0.696, 18 seasons); RB median 0.517 (0.406-0.589, 18 seasons); position group is the player's CURRENT nflverse position applied to every season, not as-of; SURVIVORSHIP: a lag-1 pair needs >= 5 games in both seasons, a split-half pair >= 3 in each half, so both designs are conditional on the player staying in the league; WR lag-1 efficiency r by games required {1: 0.202, 5: 0.258, 12: 0.297}; 726 of 2491 qualifying player-seasons do not return, mean per-game residual -2.736 leaving against +0.751 returning; TE lag-1 efficiency r by games required {1: 0.242, 5: 0.298, 12: 0.330}; 386 of 1343 qualifying player-seasons do not return, mean per-game residual -1.273 leaving against +0.279 returning; RB lag-1 efficiency r by games required {1: 0.060, 5: 0.087, 12: 0.105}; 530 of 1560 qualifying player-seasons do not return, mean per-game residual -0.533 leaving against +0.205 returning

Columns it reads

pbp.receiver_player_id|incomplete_pass, pbp.receiver_player_id|complete_pass, pbp.air_yards|pass_attempt, weekly_stats.position

Denominator

Not a share: the figure has no denominator it splits with anyone.

Season range

Current 2009–2026. Current. Its inputs cover 2009 to 2026 and reach the season in progress.

Slices

position_group|design|quantity

Refreshed

This file was generated Tue, Oct 27, 9:32 AM ET. It does not state a refresh schedule.

No distribution: the file is one figure for the whole league, not a value per player.

No week-to-week carry-over is published for this measure. Its file holds a value per league with its interval; whether a week above average carries into the next is not in it.

No leaderboard: the file is one league-wide figure, not a value per player.

1. Interval from resampling players with replacement, 2,000 times. Built at 95%. That coverage is nominal: this page does not check it against outcomes.
2. n counts independent players, never rows. A value resting on fewer than 5 players is shown muted in the table and not read: it is left out of the range and the leaders.
3. It covers 2009 to 2026, and says why in the producer's words: starts 2009: pbp.receiver_player_id|incomplete_pass is not usable before it; fit receiving yards ~ targets + air_yards, OLS per season x position group over player-weeks; R^2 WR median 0.581 (0.548-0.651, 18 seasons); TE median 0.638 (0.584-0.696, 18 seasons); RB median 0.517 (0.406-0.589, 18 seasons); position group is the player's CURRENT nflverse position applied to every season, not as-of; SURVIVORSHIP: a lag-1 pair needs >= 5 games in both seasons, a split-half pair >= 3 in each half, so both designs are conditional on the player staying in the league; WR lag-1 efficiency r by games required {1: 0.202, 5: 0.258, 12: 0.297}; 726 of 2491 qualifying player-seasons do not return, mean per-game residual -2.736 leaving against +0.751 returning; TE lag-1 efficiency r by games required {1: 0.242, 5: 0.298, 12: 0.330}; 386 of 1343 qualifying player-seasons do not return, mean per-game residual -1.273 leaving against +0.279 returning; RB lag-1 efficiency r by games required {1: 0.060, 5: 0.087, 12: 0.105}; 530 of 1560 qualifying player-seasons do not return, mean per-game residual -0.533 leaving against +0.205 returning.
4. It is one figure for the whole league, pooled. It does not say what any one player does, and it does not split by position.