Does it persist: receiving TDs volume against efficiency

Source

weekly_stats; n counts independent players

Bound column

starts 2009: weekly_stats.targets is not usable before it; fit receiving TDs ~ targets, OLS per season x position group over player-weeks; R^2 WR median 0.107 (0.078-0.134, 18 seasons); TE median 0.088 (0.062-0.125, 18 seasons); RB median 0.043 (0.022-0.061, 18 seasons); position group is the player's CURRENT nflverse position applied to every season, not as-of; SURVIVORSHIP: a lag-1 pair needs >= 5 games in both seasons, a split-half pair >= 3 in each half, so both designs are conditional on the player staying in the league; WR lag-1 efficiency r by games required {1: 0.132, 5: 0.166, 12: 0.206}; 725 of 2499 qualifying player-seasons do not return, mean per-game residual -0.042 leaving against +0.008 returning; TE lag-1 efficiency r by games required {1: 0.154, 5: 0.174, 12: 0.159}; 386 of 1346 qualifying player-seasons do not return, mean per-game residual -0.022 leaving against +0.007 returning; RB lag-1 efficiency r by games required {1: 0.045, 5: 0.127, 12: 0.213}; 531 of 1563 qualifying player-seasons do not return, mean per-game residual -0.006 leaving against +0.004 returning

Columns it reads

weekly_stats.targets, weekly_stats.receiving_tds, weekly_stats.position

Denominator

Not a share: the figure has no denominator it splits with anyone.

Season range

Current 2009–2026. Current. Its inputs cover 2009 to 2026 and reach the season in progress.

Slices

position_group|design|quantity

Refreshed

This file was generated Tue, Oct 27, 9:32 AM ET. It does not state a refresh schedule.

No distribution: the file is one figure for the whole league, not a value per player.

No week-to-week carry-over is published for this measure. Its file holds a value per league with its interval; whether a week above average carries into the next is not in it.

No leaderboard: the file is one league-wide figure, not a value per player.

1. Interval from resampling players with replacement, 2,000 times. Built at 95%. That coverage is nominal: this page does not check it against outcomes.
2. n counts independent players, never rows. A value resting on fewer than 5 players is shown muted in the table and not read: it is left out of the range and the leaders.
3. It covers 2009 to 2026, and says why in the producer's words: starts 2009: weekly_stats.targets is not usable before it; fit receiving TDs ~ targets, OLS per season x position group over player-weeks; R^2 WR median 0.107 (0.078-0.134, 18 seasons); TE median 0.088 (0.062-0.125, 18 seasons); RB median 0.043 (0.022-0.061, 18 seasons); position group is the player's CURRENT nflverse position applied to every season, not as-of; SURVIVORSHIP: a lag-1 pair needs >= 5 games in both seasons, a split-half pair >= 3 in each half, so both designs are conditional on the player staying in the league; WR lag-1 efficiency r by games required {1: 0.132, 5: 0.166, 12: 0.206}; 725 of 2499 qualifying player-seasons do not return, mean per-game residual -0.042 leaving against +0.008 returning; TE lag-1 efficiency r by games required {1: 0.154, 5: 0.174, 12: 0.159}; 386 of 1346 qualifying player-seasons do not return, mean per-game residual -0.022 leaving against +0.007 returning; RB lag-1 efficiency r by games required {1: 0.045, 5: 0.127, 12: 0.213}; 531 of 1563 qualifying player-seasons do not return, mean per-game residual -0.006 leaving against +0.004 returning.
4. It is one figure for the whole league, pooled. It does not say what any one player does, and it does not split by position.