calibrated SPORTS
NFLAnalyticsOpportunity residualRushing Tds

One measure, in full · Opportunity residual

Production beyond opportunity: rushing TDs

Opportunity residual

Not published
Week-to-week carry-over
−2.9 – 7.3
Range of values
7.3
Highest estimate, shared
30 intervals reach it · players active in 2026
n = 42
Values in the opening slice

Definition

One definition, the column that binds its range, and what the figure is a share of.

rushing TDs over the season minus what his carries predicted, SUMMED over his games, so it grows with games played - band or rank on opportunity_residual.per_game.rushing_tds instead; the interval resamples his games and is conditional on the fitted line

opportunity_residual.rushing_tds

Source
weekly_stats; n counts independent games
Bound column
the whole archive, 1999-2026; no input binds it; fit rushing TDs ~ carries, OLS per season x position group over player-weeks; R^2 RB median 0.188 (0.132-0.271, 28 seasons); QB median 0.086 (0.010-0.183, 28 seasons); position group is the player's CURRENT nflverse position applied to every season, not as-of; QB kneel-downs (nflverse qb_kneel) are excluded from both sides of the fit - 9457 kneel plays removed (RB 4, QB 9453 by position group); SUMMED, so it scales with games: |value| against games played r 0.40 over 3799 player-seasons (per game: |value| against games played r 0.09 over 3799 player-seasons)
Columns it reads
weekly_stats.carries, weekly_stats.rushing_tds, weekly_stats.position
Denominator
Not a share: the figure has no denominator it splits with anyone.
Season range
Current 1999–2026. Current. Its inputs cover 1999 to 2026 and reach the season in progress.
Slices
season|position_group; the page opens on 2025|QB
Refreshed
This file was generated Tue, Oct 27, 9:32 AM ET. It does not state a refresh schedule.

Distribution

The middle half sits between −1.1 and 0.7.

Production beyond opportunity: rushing TDs, 2025|QB · N = 42 with at least 5 games · 1999–2026

−3.0 to −2.0: 2−2.0 to −1.0: 12−1.0 to 0.0: 110.0 to 1.0: 91.0 to 2.0: 32.0 to 3.0: 23.0 to 4.0: 14.0 to 5.0: 15.0 to 6.0: 06.0 to 7.0: 07.0 to 8.0: 1

Darker bars: 1.0 and up, 8 of 42 values, the top fifth (19%).

Does it carry?

No week-to-week carry-over is published for this measure. Its file holds a value per player with its interval; whether a week above average carries into the next is not in it.

Loading Production beyond opportunity: rushing TDs…

What the file does and does not say

Four limits, stated plainly.

  1. Interval from resampling games with replacement, 2,000 times. Built at 95%. That coverage is nominal: this page does not check it against outcomes.
  2. n counts independent games, never rows. A value resting on fewer than 5 games is shown muted in the table and not read: it is left out of the range and the leaders.
  3. It covers 1999 to 2026, and says why in the producer's words: the whole archive, 1999-2026; no input binds it; fit rushing TDs ~ carries, OLS per season x position group over player-weeks; R^2 RB median 0.188 (0.132-0.271, 28 seasons); QB median 0.086 (0.010-0.183, 28 seasons); position group is the player's CURRENT nflverse position applied to every season, not as-of; QB kneel-downs (nflverse qb_kneel) are excluded from both sides of the fit - 9457 kneel plays removed (RB 4, QB 9453 by position group); SUMMED, so it scales with games: |value| against games played r 0.40 over 3799 player-seasons (per game: |value| against games played r 0.09 over 3799 player-seasons).
  4. It has values for 1,010 players. One with no row in the file has no value here, which is not a value of zero.