calibrated SPORTS
NFLAnalyticsOpportunity residualPer Game Receptions

One measure, in full · Opportunity residual

Production beyond opportunity per game: receptions

Opportunity residual

Not published
Week-to-week carry-over
−0.39 – 0.52
Range of values
0.52
Highest estimate, shared
73 intervals reach it · players active in 2026
n = 83
Values in the opening slice

Definition

One definition, the column that binds its range, and what the figure is a share of.

receptions minus what his targets predicted, per game played over the season (the summed residual divided by his games); the interval resamples his games and is conditional on the fitted line

opportunity_residual.per_game.receptions

Source
pbp; n counts independent games
Bound column
starts 2009: pbp.receiver_player_id|incomplete_pass is not usable before it; fit receptions ~ targets, OLS per season x position group over player-weeks; R^2 WR median 0.777 (0.724-0.816, 18 seasons); TE median 0.806 (0.779-0.856, 18 seasons); RB median 0.824 (0.804-0.872, 18 seasons); position group is the player's CURRENT nflverse position applied to every season, not as-of; per game: |value| against games played r 0.08 over 5746 player-seasons
Columns it reads
pbp.receiver_player_id|incomplete_pass, pbp.receiver_player_id|complete_pass, weekly_stats.position
Denominator
Not a share: the figure has no denominator it splits with anyone.
Season range
Current 2009–2026. Current. Its inputs cover 2009 to 2026 and reach the season in progress.
Slices
season|position_group; the page opens on 2025|RB
Refreshed
This file was generated Tue, Oct 27, 9:32 AM ET. It does not state a refresh schedule.

Distribution

The middle half sits between −0.13 and 0.14.

Production beyond opportunity per game: receptions, 2025|RB · N = 83 with at least 5 games · 2009–2026

−0.40 to −0.30: 6−0.30 to −0.20: 6−0.20 to −0.10: 14−0.10 to 0.00: 180.00 to 0.10: 110.10 to 0.20: 170.20 to 0.30: 40.30 to 0.40: 50.40 to 0.50: 10.50 to 0.60: 1

Darker bars: 0.20 and up, 11 of 83 values, 13% of them.

Does it carry?

No week-to-week carry-over is published for this measure. Its file holds a value per player with its interval; whether a week above average carries into the next is not in it.

Loading Production beyond opportunity per game: receptions…

What the file does and does not say

Four limits, stated plainly.

  1. Interval from resampling games with replacement, 2,000 times. Built at 95%. That coverage is nominal: this page does not check it against outcomes.
  2. n counts independent games, never rows. A value resting on fewer than 5 games is shown muted in the table and not read: it is left out of the range and the leaders.
  3. It covers 2009 to 2026, and says why in the producer's words: starts 2009: pbp.receiver_player_id|incomplete_pass is not usable before it; fit receptions ~ targets, OLS per season x position group over player-weeks; R^2 WR median 0.777 (0.724-0.816, 18 seasons); TE median 0.806 (0.779-0.856, 18 seasons); RB median 0.824 (0.804-0.872, 18 seasons); position group is the player's CURRENT nflverse position applied to every season, not as-of; per game: |value| against games played r 0.08 over 5746 player-seasons.
  4. It has values for 1,631 players. One with no row in the file has no value here, which is not a value of zero.