calibrated SPORTS
NFLAnalyticsOpportunity residualPer Game Rushing Yards

One measure, in full · Opportunity residual

Production beyond opportunity per game: rushing yards

Opportunity residual

Not published
Week-to-week carry-over
−7 – 9
Range of values
9
Highest estimate, shared
23 intervals reach it · players active in 2026
n = 42
Values in the opening slice

Definition

One definition, the column that binds its range, and what the figure is a share of.

rushing yards minus what his carries predicted, per game played over the season (the summed residual divided by his games); the interval resamples his games and is conditional on the fitted line

opportunity_residual.per_game.rushing_yards

Source
pbp; n counts independent games
Bound column
the whole archive, 1999-2026; no input binds it; fit rushing yards ~ carries, OLS per season x position group over player-weeks; R^2 RB median 0.743 (0.684-0.800, 28 seasons); QB median 0.617 (0.434-0.722, 28 seasons); position group is the player's CURRENT nflverse position applied to every season, not as-of; QB kneel-downs (nflverse qb_kneel) are excluded from both sides of the fit - 9457 kneel plays removed (RB 4, QB 9453 by position group); per game: |value| against games played r 0.15 over 3785 player-seasons
Columns it reads
pbp.rusher_player_id|rush_attempt, weekly_stats.position
Denominator
Not a share: the figure has no denominator it splits with anyone.
Season range
Current 1999–2026. Current. Its inputs cover 1999 to 2026 and reach the season in progress.
Slices
season|position_group; the page opens on 2025|QB
Refreshed
This file was generated Tue, Oct 27, 9:32 AM ET. It does not state a refresh schedule.

Distribution

The middle half sits between −4 and 2.

Production beyond opportunity per game: rushing yards, 2025|QB · N = 42 with at least 5 games · 1999–2026

−7 to −6: 2−6 to −5: 2−5 to −4: 3−4 to −3: 4−3 to −2: 3−2 to −1: 3−1 to 0: 50 to 1: 51 to 2: 52 to 3: 33 to 4: 24 to 5: 15 to 6: 16 to 7: 07 to 8: 18 to 9: 2

Darker bars: 2 and up, 10 of 42 values, the top fifth (24%).

Does it carry?

No week-to-week carry-over is published for this measure. Its file holds a value per player with its interval; whether a week above average carries into the next is not in it.

Loading Production beyond opportunity per game: rushing yards…

What the file does and does not say

Four limits, stated plainly.

  1. Interval from resampling games with replacement, 2,000 times. Built at 95%. That coverage is nominal: this page does not check it against outcomes.
  2. n counts independent games, never rows. A value resting on fewer than 5 games is shown muted in the table and not read: it is left out of the range and the leaders.
  3. It covers 1999 to 2026, and says why in the producer's words: the whole archive, 1999-2026; no input binds it; fit rushing yards ~ carries, OLS per season x position group over player-weeks; R^2 RB median 0.743 (0.684-0.800, 28 seasons); QB median 0.617 (0.434-0.722, 28 seasons); position group is the player's CURRENT nflverse position applied to every season, not as-of; QB kneel-downs (nflverse qb_kneel) are excluded from both sides of the fit - 9457 kneel plays removed (RB 4, QB 9453 by position group); per game: |value| against games played r 0.15 over 3785 player-seasons.
  4. It has values for 1,009 players. One with no row in the file has no value here, which is not a value of zero.