calibrated SPORTS
NFLAnalyticsGame scriptTargets

One measure, in full · Game script

Game-script elasticity, targets

Game script

Not published
Week-to-week carry-over
−0.173 – 0.109
Range of values
0.109
Highest estimate, shared
86 intervals reach it · players active in 2026
n = 1,038
Values in the opening slice

Definition

One definition, the column that binds its range, and what the figure is a share of.

share of team targets when trailing by 7+, minus the same share when leading by 7+

script_elasticity.targets

Source
pbp; n counts independent games
Bound column
starts 2009: pbp.receiver_player_id|incomplete_pass is not usable before it
Columns it reads
pbp.receiver_player_id|incomplete_pass, pbp.receiver_player_id|pass_attempt
Denominator
The team's total: teammates split one denominator.
Season range
Current 2009–2026. Current. Its inputs cover 2009 to 2026 and reach the season in progress.
Slices
script_bucket; the page opens on the headline value
Refreshed
This file was generated Tue, Oct 27, 9:33 AM ET. It does not state a refresh schedule.

Distribution

The middle half sits between −0.032 and 0.007.

Game-script elasticity, targets, headline value · N = 1,038 with at least 5 games · 2009–2026

−0.180 to −0.160: 1−0.160 to −0.140: 1−0.140 to −0.120: 4−0.120 to −0.100: 9−0.100 to −0.080: 11−0.080 to −0.060: 46−0.060 to −0.040: 108−0.040 to −0.020: 228−0.020 to 0.000: 2920.000 to 0.020: 2090.020 to 0.040: 990.040 to 0.060: 210.060 to 0.080: 60.080 to 0.100: 20.100 to 0.120: 1

Darker bars: 0.020 and up, 129 of 1,038 values, 12% of them.

Does it carry?

No week-to-week carry-over is published for this measure. Its file holds a value per player with its interval; whether a week above average carries into the next is not in it.

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What the file does and does not say

Four limits, stated plainly.

  1. Interval from resampling games with replacement, 2,000 times. Built at 95%. That coverage is nominal: this page does not check it against outcomes.
  2. n counts independent games, never rows. A value resting on fewer than 5 games is shown muted in the table and not read: it is left out of the range and the leaders.
  3. It covers 2009 to 2026, and says why in the producer's words: starts 2009: pbp.receiver_player_id|incomplete_pass is not usable before it.
  4. A share of a team total: teammates split one denominator, so two teammates' intervals side by side are not two independent estimates.