calibrated SPORTS
NFLAnalyticsOpportunity residualReceiving Tds

One measure, in full · Opportunity residual

Production beyond opportunity: receiving TDs

Opportunity residual

Not published
Week-to-week carry-over
−1.8 – 4.1
Range of values
4.1
Highest estimate, shared
69 intervals reach it · players active in 2026
n = 83
Values in the opening slice

Definition

One definition, the column that binds its range, and what the figure is a share of.

receiving TDs over the season minus what his targets predicted, SUMMED over his games, so it grows with games played - band or rank on opportunity_residual.per_game.receiving_tds instead; the interval resamples his games and is conditional on the fitted line

opportunity_residual.receiving_tds

Source
weekly_stats; n counts independent games
Bound column
starts 2009: weekly_stats.targets is not usable before it; fit receiving TDs ~ targets, OLS per season x position group over player-weeks; R^2 WR median 0.107 (0.078-0.134, 18 seasons); TE median 0.088 (0.062-0.125, 18 seasons); RB median 0.043 (0.022-0.061, 18 seasons); position group is the player's CURRENT nflverse position applied to every season, not as-of; SUMMED, so it scales with games: |value| against games played r 0.39 over 5744 player-seasons (per game: |value| against games played r 0.07 over 5744 player-seasons)
Columns it reads
weekly_stats.targets, weekly_stats.receiving_tds, weekly_stats.position
Denominator
Not a share: the figure has no denominator it splits with anyone.
Season range
Current 2009–2026. Current. Its inputs cover 2009 to 2026 and reach the season in progress.
Slices
season|position_group; the page opens on 2025|RB
Refreshed
This file was generated Tue, Oct 27, 9:32 AM ET. It does not state a refresh schedule.

Distribution

The middle half sits between −0.7 and 0.6.

Production beyond opportunity: receiving TDs, 2025|RB · N = 83 with at least 5 games · 2009–2026

−2.0 to −1.5: 3−1.5 to −1.0: 8−1.0 to −0.5: 18−0.5 to 0.0: 180.0 to 0.5: 120.5 to 1.0: 101.0 to 1.5: 21.5 to 2.0: 82.0 to 2.5: 22.5 to 3.0: 13.0 to 3.5: 03.5 to 4.0: 04.0 to 4.5: 1

Darker bars: 1.0 and up, 14 of 83 values, the top fifth (17%).

Does it carry?

No week-to-week carry-over is published for this measure. Its file holds a value per player with its interval; whether a week above average carries into the next is not in it.

Loading Production beyond opportunity: receiving TDs…

What the file does and does not say

Four limits, stated plainly.

  1. Interval from resampling games with replacement, 2,000 times. Built at 95%. That coverage is nominal: this page does not check it against outcomes.
  2. n counts independent games, never rows. A value resting on fewer than 5 games is shown muted in the table and not read: it is left out of the range and the leaders.
  3. It covers 2009 to 2026, and says why in the producer's words: starts 2009: weekly_stats.targets is not usable before it; fit receiving TDs ~ targets, OLS per season x position group over player-weeks; R^2 WR median 0.107 (0.078-0.134, 18 seasons); TE median 0.088 (0.062-0.125, 18 seasons); RB median 0.043 (0.022-0.061, 18 seasons); position group is the player's CURRENT nflverse position applied to every season, not as-of; SUMMED, so it scales with games: |value| against games played r 0.39 over 5744 player-seasons (per game: |value| against games played r 0.07 over 5744 player-seasons).
  4. It has values for 1,630 players. One with no row in the file has no value here, which is not a value of zero.