calibrated SPORTS
NFLLines

Lines · 2026 · Week 7 · read Tue 9:24 AM ET

453 lines posted.
The model leans on 243.

Every posted line this week, the market's price, the Second Opinion beside it, and what leans that size have done before. Nothing leaves the board when it misses.

The site's current period is week 8; this is the board for week 7, the newest one published.

Leans published, week 7
243
235 graded · 0 open · 8 void
Leans cleared, this read
54%
128 of 235 · 95% 48%–61%
Break-even at −110
52.4%
what a lean at that price needs

What a lean is

A gap of 4 points or more between the model and the market.

First opinionThe market’s price
Second OpinionThe model’s

It is published so it can be graded, not because disagreeing has paid. Every lean stays on the record, cleared or missed.

From the board index · board/nfl/2026/wk07/index.json

Player props

453 of 453 lines posted; 243 carry a lean, at a gap of 4 points or more. Each row sets the market’s chance of the over beside the Second Opinion’s.

Lean
AllLeansNo lean
Market
AllRec ydsRecRush att
Hide settled
Game and order

Rows 401–440 of 453 · page 11 of 12

Settled14 games, graded where the line stood at its last read before kickoff · 453 lines · continued; 40 of them on this page

243 leans published for week 7: 235 graded, 0 upcoming, 0 live, 8 void. On this read, 128 cleared, 107 missed.

Receipts: every lean the model has published this season, graded, none removed →

How the board is read

Market P(over): median of each benchmark book’s de-vigged price at the main line · Second Opinion: baseline-usage-0.4+03571d4710af

Line
the main line AT THIS READ: the listed threshold whose median de-vigged over probability across DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM is closest to 0.5. is_main is a property of the read, not of the market; it is false only on a row kept for a published lean whose line the main line moved off.
Gap
model minus market, probability points, signed
Lean
over at gap >= +T, under at gap <= -T
Longshot
market P(over) outside [0.15, 0.85]; multiplicative de-vig is biased there - to revisit with Shin or power de-vig once settled data exists
Void
market_pulled | inactive | no_snap - a voided lean stays on the ledger

Threshold log (appended, never edited, so every lean is graded against the threshold it was published under): 4 points from 2026-09-01 (decided 2026-09-24 (audit 5.3, unit a-26) before the first board; effective from season start because no board read predates it).

Last read Tue 9:24 AM ET · week 7Break-even at −110 is 52.4%Nothing leaves the board when it misses

Not a sportsbook · no wagers accepted · nothing here is advice · read Tue 9:24 AM ET · 197 reads this week · model baseline-usage-0.4+03571d4710af · board/nfl/2026/wk07