Lines · 2026 · Week 8 · read Tue 1:04 PM ET
21 lines posted.
The model leans on 9.
Every posted line this week, the market's price, the Second Opinion beside it, and what leans that size have done before. Nothing leaves the board when it misses.
What a lean is
A gap of 4 points or more between the model and the market.
It is published so it can be graded, not because disagreeing has paid. Every lean stays on the record, cleared or missed.
From the board index · board/nfl/2026/wk08/index.json
Player props
21 of 21 lines posted; 9 carry a lean, at a gap of 4 points or more. Each row sets the market’s chance of the over beside the Second Opinion’s.
Rows 1–21 of 21
Market 50.0%Second Opinion not priced
Market 49.1%Second Opinion 41.2%
Market 50.0%Second Opinion not priced
Market 41.4%Second Opinion 38.1%
Market 50.8%Second Opinion 19.4%
Market 50.0%Second Opinion not priced
Market 44.1%Second Opinion 38.8%
Market 50.0%Second Opinion not priced
Market 41.8%Second Opinion 19.9%
Market 50.0%Second Opinion not priced
Chance to clear each threshold
Last 10 games: the share at or above each threshold. Ten games at most: a small sample, drawn as one.
Market 50.0%No Second Opinion for this market— last ten
The read prices the main line only; the books also listed 15.5, without a price in this file.
This line, game by game
Last 10 against today’s 14.5, not the line posted that week · cleared 3 of 10.
Cleared Missed– not recorded
this season 1 of 1 · career 54 of 93 against 14.5 · 23 of 46 against each game's own closing line (2023-2025 sportsbook closes).
What leans this size have done
No Second Opinion for this market, so no gap and no lean.
Line since open
Opened at 14.5, unchanged.
One read of this line so far (Mon, Oct 26, 8:15 PM ET, 50.0%): no path yet.
| Book | Over | Under | P(over) | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| fanduel | −114 | −114 | 50.0% | 6.5% |
CAR @ GB · kickoff Thu, Oct 29, 8:15 PM ET
Market 48.5%Second Opinion 44.5%
Market 49.8%Second Opinion 49.5%
Market 53.4%Second Opinion 52.5%
Market 50.0%Second Opinion not priced
Market 54.7%Second Opinion 24.7%
Market 50.2%Second Opinion not priced
Market 52.0%Second Opinion 16.7%
Market 50.0%Second Opinion not priced
Market 44.5%Second Opinion 33.2%
Market 50.0%Second Opinion not priced
Market 46.7%Second Opinion 36.8%
9 leans published for week 8: 0 graded, 9 upcoming, 0 live, 0 void.
Receipts: every lean the model has published this season, graded, none removed →
How the board is read
Market P(over): median of each benchmark book’s de-vigged price at the main line · Second Opinion: baseline-usage-0.4+03571d4710af
- Line
- the main line AT THIS READ: the listed threshold whose median de-vigged over probability across DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM is closest to 0.5. is_main is a property of the read, not of the market; it is false only on a row kept for a published lean whose line the main line moved off.
- Gap
- model minus market, probability points, signed
- Lean
- over at gap >= +T, under at gap <= -T
- Longshot
- market P(over) outside [0.15, 0.85]; multiplicative de-vig is biased there - to revisit with Shin or power de-vig once settled data exists
- Void
- market_pulled | inactive | no_snap - a voided lean stays on the ledger
Threshold log (appended, never edited, so every lean is graded against the threshold it was published under): 4 points from 2026-09-01 (decided 2026-09-24 (audit 5.3, unit a-26) before the first board; effective from season start because no board read predates it).
Last read Tue 1:04 PM ET · week 8Break-even at −110 is 52.4%Nothing leaves the board when it misses
Not a sportsbook · no wagers accepted · nothing here is advice · read Tue 1:04 PM ET · 2 reads this week · model baseline-usage-0.4+03571d4710af · board/nfl/2026/wk08