Tetairoa McMillan
2026 regular season · 6 games
2026 so far, against his career
2026 · 6 gamesCareer · 23 gamesPer game, computed from the season and career totals below. Six games is a small sample.
Prop history
Cleared the main receptions line in 6 of 18 games.
Receptions against the posted line
ClearedMissedLineEach bar is one game’s main line from the settled record, oldest first; the counts above are the same games. A lighter bar cleared by half the line or more, a lighter miss finished at half the line or under. Pushes and voids are outlined and are not counted.
Receptions: the main line, game by game
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | Actual against the line | Result | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | vs TB | No main line graded | ||||
| Oct 18 | @ PHI | No main line graded | ||||
| Oct 4 | vs DET | No main line graded | ||||
| Sep 27 | @ CLE | No main line graded | ||||
| Sep 20 | @ ATL | No main line graded | ||||
| Sep 13 | vs CHI | No main line graded | ||||
Every posted receptions line, by season
Cleared of posted. A ladder posts several of these on one game and they all settle off one stat line, so a column is not that many separate results.
| Line | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | · | 1 of 1 |
| 2.5 | · | 1 of 1 |
| 3.5 | · | 1 of 1 |
| 4.5 | 7 of 17 | 1 of 1 |
| 5.5 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 1 |
| 6.5 | · | 0 of 1 |
| 7.5 | · | 0 of 1 |
| 8.5 | · | 0 of 1 |
| 9.5 | · | 0 of 1 |
| 10.5 | · | 0 of 1 |
The states are cleared and missed: finishing over a posted line is a fact about the player, and nothing here is a wager. Each is drawn in its own colour and never by colour alone: a bar’s place against its line, and the word beside it, say the same thing.
Source: each game's main line, from the closing sportsbook price or, where no book priced the game, the exchange mid.
How this is computed
One line per game. A ladder posts several thresholds on one game and every one of them settles off the same final stat line, so pooling them counts one game many times over. The rate here is over the main line alone: of the lines posted for that game, the one whose de-vigged probability of the over was closest to even at the close. The interval is Wilson 95% over those games.
The trend is the clear rate over a rolling window of ten graded games, the same floor below which this page prints no rate at all, so its last point is the Last 10 window. Even money is the definition of a fair line, not a measurement.
Source: each game’s main line, from the closing prices. Where sportsbooks priced the game (The Odds API), the price is the median de-vigged close across the books quoting it and the row says how many; where none did, it is the exchange mid (Kalshi, then Polymarket) from the last quote before kickoff, and the row says so. The two are never mixed within one game. A push or a void (the player took no snap) is listed and is not counted as cleared or missed; a player who played and recorded nothing settled at zero, which is a miss on an over.
Usage trend
2026 regular season: 6 games, 82% average snap share, 54 targets.
How this is computed
Fantasy points
16.2 PPR points a game over 6 games of the 2026 regular season.
How this is computed
Game log
6 games in 2026.
How this is computed
Career
Career (REG): 23 games over 2 seasons.
| Season | G | Avg snap % | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6 | 82% | 54 | 36 | 511 | 2 | 16.2 |
| 2025 | 17 | 87% | 122 | 70 | 1,014 | 7 | 12.4 |
| 2025 post | 1 | 90% | 7 | 5 | 81 | 0 | 13.1 |
| Career (REG) | 23 | 86% | 176 | 106 | 1,525 | 9 | 13.4 |
How this is computed
Market · 2026 Week 8
What the exchange’s ladders imply for his PPR points against Green Bay Packers.
Chance of clearing each total
How the 5.5 receptions rung has moved
The rung nearest even money. The exchange posted no line to follow.
The receptions ladder
Mid of each rung, no de-vig.
What it is built from
- MARKETRec2.5: 84% · 3.5: 72% · 4.5: 60% · 5.5: 45% · 6.5: 31% · 7.5: 13% · 8.5: 8% · 9.5: 5% · 10.5: 4%
- DERIVEDRec Ydsreceptions × yards per catch by position
- MARKETCarno rush-attempts ladder listed; contributes 0
- DERIVEDRush Ydsattempts × yards per carry by position
- ANCHOREDTDplayer TD rate scaled by the game total and spread
Source: kalshi · research/implied.py arm A: mid of each rung, no de-vig (exchange); isotonic survival fit; Gaussian copula receptions↔receiving yards; Monte Carlo · 4,000 simulations · game total 47.5, spread +3.5 (nflverse games)
The method was validated on sportsbook ladders, 2023-25 (q90 coverage 0.101 against 0.100). The Kalshi-ladder arm used here has not been independently validated.
How this is computed
Source: the kalshi exchange ladder. An exchange lists every threshold at once, so there is no single posted line here, unlike a sportsbook line, which is what the prop history above is settled against.
In the news
generated Tue, Oct 27, 9:27 AM ET