Lines · 2026 · Week 8 · read Tue 1:04 PM ET
21 lines posted.
The model leans on 9.
Every posted line this week, the market's price, the Second Opinion beside it, and what leans that size have done before. Nothing leaves the board when it misses.
What a lean is
A gap of 4 points or more between the model and the market.
It is published so it can be graded, not because disagreeing has paid. Every lean stays on the record, cleared or missed.
From the board index · board/nfl/2026/wk08/index.json
Player props
8 of 21 lines shown; 9 carry a lean, at a gap of 4 points or more. Each row sets the market’s chance of the over beside the Second Opinion’s.
Rows 1–8 of 8
Market 49.1%Second Opinion 41.2%
Market 44.1%Second Opinion 38.8%
Chance to clear each threshold
Last 10 games: the share at or above each threshold. Ten games at most: a small sample, drawn as one.
Market 44.1% Second Opinion 38.8%— last ten
The read prices the main line only.
This line, game by game
Last 10 against today’s 2.5, not the line posted that week · cleared 5 of 10.
Cleared Missed– not recorded
this season 3 of 6 · career 48 of 76 against 2.5 · 11 of 21 against each game's own closing line (2023-2025 sportsbook closes).
What leans this size have done
Gaps of 4–6 points, walk-forward: each lean made with constants fitted only on earlier seasons.
- Leans
- 1,084
- over 630 games
- Cleared
- 50%
- 95% 47%–53%
- Return at the price
- −5%
- 95% −11% to +1%
At this lean’s price (−148) a bet needs 59.7% to break even. The cleared interval sits below it.
wilson_95 · game_block_bootstrap_2000 · research/board_bands.py
Line since open
Opened at 2.5, unchanged.
One read of this line so far (Mon, Oct 26, 8:15 PM ET, 44.1%): no path yet.
| Book | Over | Under | P(over) | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draftkings | +106 | −136 | 45.7% | 6.2% |
| fanduel | +120 | −160 | 42.5% | 7.0% |
CAR @ GB · kickoff Thu, Oct 29, 8:15 PM ET
Market 41.8%Second Opinion 19.9%
Market 48.5%Second Opinion 44.5%
Market 54.7%Second Opinion 24.7%
Market 52.0%Second Opinion 16.7%
Market 44.5%Second Opinion 33.2%
Market 46.7%Second Opinion 36.8%
9 leans published for week 8: 0 graded, 9 upcoming, 0 live, 0 void.
Receipts: every lean the model has published this season, graded, none removed →
How the board is read
Market P(over): median of each benchmark book’s de-vigged price at the main line · Second Opinion: baseline-usage-0.4+03571d4710af
- Line
- the main line AT THIS READ: the listed threshold whose median de-vigged over probability across DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM is closest to 0.5. is_main is a property of the read, not of the market; it is false only on a row kept for a published lean whose line the main line moved off.
- Gap
- model minus market, probability points, signed
- Lean
- over at gap >= +T, under at gap <= -T
- Longshot
- market P(over) outside [0.15, 0.85]; multiplicative de-vig is biased there - to revisit with Shin or power de-vig once settled data exists
- Void
- market_pulled | inactive | no_snap - a voided lean stays on the ledger
Threshold log (appended, never edited, so every lean is graded against the threshold it was published under): 4 points from 2026-09-01 (decided 2026-09-24 (audit 5.3, unit a-26) before the first board; effective from season start because no board read predates it).
Last read Tue 1:04 PM ET · week 8Break-even at −110 is 52.4%Nothing leaves the board when it misses
Not a sportsbook · no wagers accepted · nothing here is advice · read Tue 1:04 PM ET · 2 reads this week · model baseline-usage-0.4+03571d4710af · board/nfl/2026/wk08