Lines · 2026 · Week 8 · read Tue 12:04 PM ET
21 lines posted.
The model leans on 9.
Every posted line this week, the market's price, the Second Opinion beside it, and what leans that size have done before. Nothing leaves the board when it misses.
What a lean is
A gap of 4 points or more between the model and the market.
It is published so it can be graded, not because disagreeing has paid. Every lean stays on the record, cleared or missed.
From the board index · board/nfl/2026/wk08/index.json
Player props
2 of 21 lines shown; 9 carry a lean, at a gap of 4 points or more. Each row sets the market’s chance of the over beside the Second Opinion’s.
Rows 1–2 of 2
Market 49.8%Second Opinion 49.5%
Market 53.4%Second Opinion 52.5%
9 leans published for week 8: 0 graded, 9 upcoming, 0 live, 0 void.
Receipts: every lean the model has published this season, graded, none removed →
How the board is read
Market P(over): median of each benchmark book’s de-vigged price at the main line · Second Opinion: baseline-usage-0.4+03571d4710af
- Line
- the main line AT THIS READ: the listed threshold whose median de-vigged over probability across DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM is closest to 0.5. is_main is a property of the read, not of the market; it is false only on a row kept for a published lean whose line the main line moved off.
- Gap
- model minus market, probability points, signed
- Lean
- over at gap >= +T, under at gap <= -T
- Longshot
- market P(over) outside [0.15, 0.85]; multiplicative de-vig is biased there - to revisit with Shin or power de-vig once settled data exists
- Void
- market_pulled | inactive | no_snap - a voided lean stays on the ledger
Threshold log (appended, never edited, so every lean is graded against the threshold it was published under): 4 points from 2026-09-01 (decided 2026-09-24 (audit 5.3, unit a-26) before the first board; effective from season start because no board read predates it).
Last read Tue 12:04 PM ET · week 8Break-even at −110 is 52.4%Nothing leaves the board when it misses
Not a sportsbook · no wagers accepted · nothing here is advice · read Tue 12:04 PM ET · 1 read this week · model baseline-usage-0.4+03571d4710af · board/nfl/2026/wk08