Lines · 2026 · Week 8 · read Tue 12:04 PM ET
21 lines posted.
The model leans on 9.
Every posted line this week, the market's price, the Second Opinion beside it, and what leans that size have done before. Nothing leaves the board when it misses.
What a lean is
A gap of 4 points or more between the model and the market.
It is published so it can be graded, not because disagreeing has paid. Every lean stays on the record, cleared or missed.
From the board index · board/nfl/2026/wk08/index.json
Streak check
1 rule fired this week. The rate shown sits 32 points from the rate the next game cleared at; 1 of 1 sits outside that rate’s 95% interval.
1 line, by rule
1 on 6 or 7 of last 7.
The widest gap
6 or 7 of last 7
Shown as 86%. Across 12,953 lines the next game cleared 53% of the time [52%–54%], over a coin flip, interval and all.
Above break-even
1 of 1 rule
6 or 7 of last 7 (53.4%, 95% 52.5%–54.3%): the whole of its 95% interval sits past 52.4%. 0 of 1 rule's next-game intervals take in the rate the streak shows.
A streak is selected because it hit, so the rate beside it is not an estimate of the next game. Each rule here is fixed in advance, not chosen by who hit, and its next-game rate was measured on every earlier time the same rule fired. The rules: 6 or 7 of last 7; 5 of last 5; 5 of last 5 away; 1 of 1 against this opponent.
This week’s streaks
Every line a rule fired on, with what that rule’s next game has cleared at. 0 lines shown.
Last read Tue 12:04 PM ET · week 8Break-even at −110 is 52.4%Nothing leaves the board when it misses
Not a sportsbook · no wagers accepted · nothing here is advice · read Tue 12:04 PM ET · 1 read this week · model baseline-usage-0.4+03571d4710af · board/nfl/2026/wk08