Replay · NFL

Test a rule against real closing prices.

Each rule here was replayed against every settled line it would have bet, at the closing price, with how sure the result is. Choose one to read it.

Rules replayed

4 more listed that the engine cannot run

Seasons replayed

1999–2024 · 2025 held out

Priced at

all 4 replayed rules · consensus close · a choice in the builder

01Rules

4 rules replayed · 4 more listed that the engine cannot run · Film Room

Loses01Fade every over13,680 bets · −3.3% ROI · open in the builder
Unclear02Rush attempts unders2,256 bets · −1.8% ROI · open in the builder
Loses03Chase the streak1,150 bets · −13.2% ROI · open in the builder
Cannot run04Follow the model's leansWaiting for walk-forward model predictions persisted for the historical seasons.
Cannot run05Buy the middleWaiting for a rule language with two legs: lab.strategy/1 bets one side at one price.
Cannot run06Arbitrage between booksWaiting for a rule language with two legs: lab.strategy/1 bets one side at one price.
Loses07Home underdogs of 3 to 71,400 bets · −5.6% ROI · open in the builder
Cannot run08Unders in the windWaiting for forecast weather joined to the replayed games.

4 rules replayed on this site so far. The more rules are tried, the more likely one clears zero by chance alone: with 4 tried, a 95% interval that allows for it spans about ±2.50 standard errors (Bonferroni), not ±1.96. The intervals on this page are the plain 95%.

Chase the streak

prop over on receptions/receiving_yards/rush_attempts/sacks, 2023-2025 REG weeks 1-18, 1 condition(s), consensus_close at close

Loses2025 held out

−13.2% ROI

1,150 bets, −13.2% ROI. Inside what luck produces.

“Loses” is set by a fixed rule, not a judgement: the ROI interval lies wholly under zero. Re-checked on this page from the file’s own interval and luck check.

Hit rate47.0% [44.1%, 49.8%]

53.7% break-even

ROI−13.2% [−18.2%, −8.5%]

Cleared 47.0% [44.1, 49.8] of 1,150 graded, against a break-even of 53.7% at the average price paid (−116): the interval sits wholly under it. The ROI interval runs from −18.2% to −8.5%, and sits wholly under zero.

Bets: 1,150; 36 weeks · 0 void
Cleared: 540; 610 missed · 0 push
Hit rate: 47.0%; 95% [44.1, 49.8] · of 1,150
Break-even: 53.7%; at the average price paid, −116
ROI: −13.2%; 95% [−18.2, −8.5] · by week
Units: −151.6u; 95% [−208.7, −98.1] · 1u flat

Worst drawdown: coming once the rule’s file carries its drawdown key (a-44).
CLV: none to publish. Every bet here is taken at the close, which is the price CLV is measured against.

Returns over time

units · by week block

This rule's ROI sits at percentile 7.4 among 1,000 random rules of 1,150 bets drawn from the same pool of 9,150: inside the 5th to 95th percentile, which is where luck alone lands a rule this size.

Returns over time: coming once this rule’s file, lab/nfl/presets/chase_the_streak.json, carries its week-block series (the returns key, a-44). Nothing is drawn from anything else in the meantime.

How this is computed

The line is cumulative units, staked 1 unit flat, counted in date order. It moves once per block of weeks, not once per bet: each block is whole weeks of one season holding at least the file's floor of cleared bets, because consecutive points of a bet-by-bet curve would give each bet’s book price back, and the file withholds those (“Deliberately restricted: no bet carries its book price, its book, its stake or its profit, and the file has no equity curve. The prices are The Odds API's, whose terms (read 2026-09-24, updated 31 Aug 2026) say nothing either way about displaying historical odds, so they stay on the server and only aggregates leave it. A winning flat bet's profit is its price minus one, and consecutive points of a cumulative curve difference back to it, so those are withheld for the same reason. ROI and units appear only where they average at least 10 cleared bets' prices. Do not add these fields back without a decision that the terms allow it.”). The band is where 90% of random rules land at the same block, the 5th to the 95th percentile of 1,000 rules drawing the same number of bets, at random, from the same pool of eligible lines on the same side. Inside it, the rule did nothing a coin could not.

By season

ROI · 95% interval

0 of 2 seasons' ROI intervals include zero; 2 sit wholly under it; 0 sit wholly over it.

Season	Bets	Cleared	95%	ROI	95%	Against zero
2023	517	47.4%	[43.1, 51.7]	−12.8%	[−18.2, −7.4]
2024	633	46.6%	[42.7, 50.5]	−13.5%	[−21.2, −6.0]

How this is computed

A real effect shows up every year; one good season inside a run of intervals that include zero is what chance looks like. The ROI interval resamples whole weeks, so bets in the same week move together. Seasons under 100 bets are greyed: their intervals are wide enough that the row should not be read on its own.

2025 is held out

The file: “held out: no figure in this result includes the 2025 season”. The season is kept back so the rule can be tested once, on games it was never shaped by. Looking is done once, when the rule has stopped changing: the job that replays it reveals the season and writes that into the file, and from then on 2025 is marked as seen on this rule.

Not revealed · no 2025 figure anywhere on this page

Where it won and lost

95% intervals · under 100 bets greyed

22 segments in 5 cuts; 10 under 100 bets, greyed.

Market

Segment	Bets	Cleared	95%	ROI	95%
Receiving yards	611	47.3%	[43.4, 51.3]	−10.7%	[−18.6, −3.5]
Receptions	306	50.7%	[45.1, 56.2]	−10.9%	[−20.8, −1.3]
Rush attempts	187	44.4%	[37.4, 51.5]	−18.7%	[−29.4, −8.4]
Sacksunder 100 bets	46	28.3%	[17.3, 42.5]	−38.8%	[−64.7, −7.1]

Home or away

Segment	Bets	Cleared	95%	ROI	95%	Against zero
Away	588	46.6%	[42.6, 50.6]	−13.7%	[−21.2, −6.6]
Home	545	47.3%	[43.2, 51.5]	−12.7%	[−19.4, −5.7]

Roof

Segment	Bets	Cleared	95%	ROI	95%	Against zero
Open air	783	45.6%	[42.1, 49.1]	−15.7%	[−21.6, −10.2]
Dome	350	50.0%	[44.8, 55.2]	−7.5%	[−18.2, +3.5]

Position

Segment	Bets	Cleared	95%	ROI	95%
DEunder 100 bets	16	6.3%	[1.1, 28.3]	ROI and units withheld: they would average 1 cleared bet price, fewer than 10, and could be read back to a book price
DTunder 100 bets	6	16.7%	[3.0, 56.4]	ROI and units withheld: they would average 1 cleared bet price, fewer than 10, and could be read back to a book price
LBunder 100 bets	16	50.0%	[28.0, 72.0]	ROI and units withheld: they would average 8 cleared bet prices, fewer than 10, and could be read back to a book price
MLBunder 100 bets	2	100.0%	[34.2, 100.0]	ROI and units withheld: they would average 2 cleared bet prices, fewer than 10, and could be read back to a book price
NTunder 100 bets	1	0.0%	[0.0, 79.3]	ROI and units withheld: they would average 0 cleared bet prices, fewer than 10, and could be read back to a book price
OLBunder 100 bets	5	20.0%	[3.6, 62.4]	ROI and units withheld: they would average 1 cleared bet price, fewer than 10, and could be read back to a book price
QBunder 100 bets	50	44.0%	[31.2, 57.7]	−23.1%	[−50.7, +3.5]
RB	356	46.9%	[41.8, 52.1]	−13.5%	[−22.4, −5.3]
TE	226	48.7%	[42.2, 55.2]	−9.5%	[−21.4, +3.1]
WR	472	48.3%	[43.8, 52.8]	−11.1%	[−18.8, −3.5]

De-vigged price

Segment	Bets	Cleared	95%	ROI	95%
0.40–0.50	210	48.1%	[41.4, 54.8]	−4.9%	[−16.4, +6.5]
0.50–0.60	878	47.0%	[43.8, 50.3]	−14.2%	[−19.8, −8.9]
<0.40under 100 bets	22	27.3%	[13.2, 48.2]	ROI and units withheld: they would average 6 cleared bet prices, fewer than 10, and could be read back to a book price
>=0.60under 100 bets	40	50.0%	[35.2, 64.8]	−24.8%	[−48.2, +2.2]

How this is computed

The same bets, cut by what was known before kickoff. A segment is not a new rule: with this many cuts, some will sit away from the rest by chance, so a single segment’s interval is not evidence on its own. ROI and units are withheld where they would average fewer than 10 cleared bets’ prices, and the file says so on the row.

The rule, as the engine approved it

prop over on receptions/receiving_yards/rush_attempts/sacks, 2023-2025 REG weeks 1-18, 1 condition(s), consensus_close at close

Bet type: prop
Markets: Receptions, Receiving yards, Rush attempts, Sacks
Side: over
Seasons: 2023–2025 · REG · weeks 1–18
Conditions: player.streak ≥ 3
Line: main
Price: consensus_close · draftkings, fanduel, betmgm · de-vig multiplicative · at the book's posted juice · -110 where none is posted
Timing: close
Staking: flat · 1u
Limits: per game no limit · per player week 1 · per week no limit
Settlement: push: refund · no snap: void

Where the prices came from

2023–2025 · The Odds API historical close, draftkings, fanduel, betmgm · a close · last snapshot at or before kickoff

strategy 3e308f429ef5db055f9f77bbdc46f911f310821f37864e1f8423f30b7aef8854 · AUDIT-2026-09-24, the Lab library launch set

How this is computed

The strategy is stored exactly as the engine approved it, defaults filled, and hashed; the same rule always hashes the same. Every condition is a figure stored as of before kickoff, so nothing known after the game can decide a bet.

Every bet it made

50 shown of 1,150 bets, newest first; page 7 of 23. Filters narrow the list; nothing is removed.

Date · wk	Bet	De-vig	Result	Actual
2024-11-172024 · wk 11	Kyren WilliamsReceiving yards 13.5 overLA v NE	51.0%	missed	0
2024-11-172024 · wk 11	Josh DownsReceiving yards 45.5 overIND v NYJ	49.0%	cleared	84
2024-11-172024 · wk 11	Najee HarrisRush attempts 14.5 overPIT v BAL	49.0%	cleared	18
2024-11-172024 · wk 11	Jakobi MeyersReceptions 5.5 overLV v MIA	49.0%	missed	4
2024-11-172024 · wk 11	Tony PollardReceiving yards 15.5 overTEN v MIN	49.5%	missed	14
2024-11-172024 · wk 11	Tyler JohnsonReceiving yards 3.5 overLA v NE	49.5%	missed	0
2024-11-172024 · wk 11	Cedrick Wilson Jr.Receiving yards 27.5 overNO v CLE	49.5%	missed	0
2024-11-172024 · wk 11	Cedric TillmanReceiving yards 57.5 overCLE v NO	50.0%	missed	47
2024-11-172024 · wk 11	George PickensReceiving yards 72.5 overPIT v BAL	50.0%	cleared	89
2024-11-172024 · wk 11	Nick Westbrook-IkhineReceiving yards 26.5 overTEN v MIN	50.0%	cleared	117
2024-11-172024 · wk 11	Josh OliverReceiving yards 11.5 overMIN v TEN	50.0%	cleared	34
2024-11-172024 · wk 11	Calvin RidleyReceiving yards 58.5 overTEN v MIN	50.0%	missed	58
2024-11-172024 · wk 11	Alvin KamaraReceiving yards 38.5 overNO v CLE	50.0%	missed	22
2024-11-142024 · wk 11	Austin EkelerRush attempts 5.5 overWAS v PHI	53.4%	missed	2
2024-11-112024 · wk 10	Matthew StaffordRush attempts 0.5 overLA v MIA	63.3%	cleared	1
2024-11-112024 · wk 10	Raheem MostertRush attempts 7.5 overMIA v LA	53.1%	missed	0
2024-11-112024 · wk 10	Jonnu SmithReceptions 3.5 overMIA v LA	48.0%	missed	3
2024-11-112024 · wk 10	Tutu AtwellReceiving yards 5.5 overLA v MIA	49.0%	cleared	6
2024-11-112024 · wk 10	Kyren WilliamsRush attempts 20.5 overLA v MIA	49.7%	missed	15
2024-11-102024 · wk 10	Kalif RaymondReceiving yards 9.5 overDET v HOU	50.5%	missed	0
2024-11-102024 · wk 10	Joe MixonRush attempts 18.5 overHOU v DET	50.0%	cleared	25
2024-11-102024 · wk 10	CeeDee LambReceptions 5.5 overDAL v PHI	55.4%	cleared	6
2024-11-102024 · wk 10	Jalen TolbertReceptions 2.5 overDAL v PHI	53.1%	cleared	3
2024-11-102024 · wk 10	James ConnerRush attempts 17.5 overARI v NYJ	51.2%	missed	12
2024-11-102024 · wk 10	Rico DowdleReceiving yards 17.5 overDAL v PHI	50.5%	missed	3
2024-11-102024 · wk 10	Tony PollardRush attempts 14.5 overTEN v LAC	46.5%	missed	9
2024-11-102024 · wk 10	Josh PalmerReceiving yards 27.5 overLAC v TEN	49.5%	cleared	36
2024-11-102024 · wk 10	Jaylen WarrenReceptions 1.5 overPIT v WAS	58.8%	cleared	2
2024-11-102024 · wk 10	Brock PurdyRush attempts 3.5 overSF v TB	58.4%	cleared	4
2024-11-102024 · wk 10	Jaleel McLaughlinRush attempts 3.5 overDEN v KC	56.6%	missed	2
2024-11-102024 · wk 10	Khalil ShakirReceptions 5.5 overBUF v IND	55.4%	cleared	6
2024-11-102024 · wk 10	Samaje PerineReceiving yards 7.5 overKC v DEN	53.8%	cleared	37
2024-11-102024 · wk 10	George KittleReceptions 4.5 overSF v TB	53.5%	missed	3
2024-11-102024 · wk 10	00-0037192Sacks 0.25 overKC v DEN	46.9%	missed	0
2024-11-102024 · wk 10	Javonte WilliamsRush attempts 9.5 overDEN v KC	52.6%	missed	1
2024-11-102024 · wk 10	Alvin KamaraReceptions 5.5 overNO v ATL	48.8%	missed	5
2024-11-102024 · wk 10	Darnell WashingtonReceiving yards 7.5 overPIT v WAS	51.0%	missed	6
2024-11-102024 · wk 10	Justin JeffersonReceptions 6.5 overMIN v JAX	51.0%	missed	5
2024-11-102024 · wk 10	Trey SermonReceiving yards 4.5 overIND v BUF	49.0%	missed	4
2024-11-102024 · wk 10	Rome OdunzeReceiving yards 38.5 overCHI v NE	50.5%	missed	23
2024-11-102024 · wk 10	Kareem HuntRush attempts 19.5 overKC v DEN	49.5%	missed	14
2024-11-102024 · wk 10	Calvin Austin IIIReceiving yards 21.5 overPIT v WAS	50.5%	missed	20
2024-11-102024 · wk 10	Bucky IrvingReceptions 2.5 overTB v SF	50.4%	cleared	3
2024-11-102024 · wk 10	Trey PalmerReceiving yards 14.5 overTB v SF	50.0%	missed	0
2024-11-102024 · wk 10	Bijan RobinsonReceiving yards 28.5 overATL v NO	50.0%	missed	28
2024-11-102024 · wk 10	Cade OttonReceiving yards 58.5 overTB v SF	50.0%	missed	35
2024-11-102024 · wk 10	Hunter HenryReceiving yards 40.5 overNE v CHI	50.0%	missed	14
2024-11-072024 · wk 10	Derrick HenryReceptions 0.5 overBAL v CIN	65.4%	cleared	1
2024-11-072024 · wk 10	Joe BurrowRush attempts 2.5 overCIN v BAL	56.1%	missed	2
2024-11-072024 · wk 10	Nelson AgholorReceiving yards 10.5 overBAL v CIN	50.0%	missed	6

All 1,150 bets in the rule’s file (JSON) · no price, book, stake or profit per bet, by the file’s restriction

How this is computed

One row per bet as the file lists it: the line, the side, the de-vigged probability of that side at the close, and how it settled. A void is a player with no snap: not a bet, and not a win.

Hypothetical results · nothing here was bet · not advice · lab/nfl/presets/chase_the_streak.json, written Sun, Sep 27, 2:14 AM ET · universe built Sun, Sep 27, 2:14 AM ET · strategy 3e308f429ef5

Test a rule against real closing prices.

00Build a rule

01Rules

Returns over time

By season

2025 is held out

Where it won and lost

Market

Home or away

Roof

Position

De-vigged price

The rule, as the engine approved it

Where the prices came from

Every bet it made