Eli Stowers

One line per game. A ladder posts several thresholds on one game and every one of them settles off the same final stat line, so pooling them counts one game many times over. The rate here is over the main line alone: of the lines posted for that game, the one whose de-vigged probability of the over was closest to even at the close. The interval is Wilson 95% over those games.

The trend is the clear rate over a rolling window of ten graded games, the same floor below which this page prints no rate at all, so its last point is the Last 10 window. Even money is the definition of a fair line, not a measurement.

Source: each game’s main line, from the closing prices. Where sportsbooks priced the game (The Odds API), the price is the median de-vigged close across the books quoting it and the row says how many; where none did, it is the exchange mid (Kalshi, then Polymarket) from the last quote before kickoff, and the row says so. The two are never mixed within one game. A push or a void (the player took no snap) is listed and is not counted as cleared or missed; a player who played and recorded nothing settled at zero, which is a miss on an over.