Every lean the model published, graded, none removed.

Nobody bet this: it is the published record at the prices that stood. A cleared lean pays what its price pays on one unit; a missed lean loses the unit; a push returns it; a void is not a bet. The price is the median American price on the lean’s side across the benchmark books at the read that published it, as the ledger records it. The dashed line is the same stakes at the same prices if every lean had cleared exactly half the time: a reference, not a verdict. The interval is the total’s, 95%: n × mean ± 1.96 × √n × sd of the per-lean returns, treating leans as independent. Leans in one game are not, so the real interval is wider. 29 settled leans have no valid recorded price (missing, or between −100 and +100, where no American price lies) and are on neither line.

All 1,279 leans this season and every event, with prices and timestamps (CSV) · the same rows (parquet). Each row is one lean as the ledger has it: published at a read, then graded once on the line it was published at, or voided with a reason. A lean whose line later moved, or whose game has not been played, is still here.

By market and lean size

5 of 5 intervals contain 52.4%, the break-even at −110; 0 sit wholly under it; 0 sit wholly over it. 1 cell has no interval: fewer than 30 leans that cleared or missed.

The size is the producer’s own band on each lean: the gap between the model’s probability and the market’s, in probability points, when the lean was published. A rate is shown where a market, or a market and size, has at least 30 leans that cleared or missed; a push is neither and is counted apart. The interval is Wilson’s, 95%, and it treats every lean as independent. Leans in one game are not, so the real uncertainty is wider than the interval drawn.