Lines · Receipts · 2026

Every lean the model published, graded, none removed.

Win or lose, it’s all here. The model scores worse than the market, and this is the ledger that shows it lean by lean.

1,234

Leans graded, 2026

663–571

Cleared · missed

53.7% [50.9, 56.5]

Hit rate · n = 1,234 cleared or missed

+9.3u [−55.2, +73.8]

Units at the read price

Running units

Up 9.28 units over 1,205 leans. The interval spans zero, so the record can’t be told apart from breaking even.

Hypothetical units at the read price, lean by lean1 unit a lean · flat

the published leans, 1u eacha coin at the same priceszero

Nobody bet this: it is the published record at the prices that stood. A cleared lean pays what its price pays on one unit; a missed lean loses the unit; a push returns it; a void is not a bet. The price is the median American price on the lean’s side across the benchmark books at the read that published it, as the ledger records it. The dashed line is the same stakes at the same prices if every lean had cleared exactly half the time: a reference, not a verdict. The interval is the total’s, 95%: n × mean ± 1.96 × √n × sd of the per-lean returns, treating leans as independent. Leans in one game are not, so the real interval is wider. 29 settled leans have no valid recorded price (missing, or between −100 and +100, where no American price lies) and are on neither line.

The ledger

One row per lean, in the order it was published. Filter it any way you like; the total never changes.

#	Wk · game	Player	Market	Line	Side	Price	Result	Units
2	W3 · CAR @ CLE	QBDeshaun Watson	Rush att	5.5	Under	−103	missedactual 11	−1.00
5	W3 · CAR @ CLE	RBChuba Hubbard	Rush att	17.5	Under	−123.5	missedactual 19	−1.00
7	W3 · CAR @ CLE	QBBryce Young	Rush att	3.5	Under	−121	clearedactual 0	+0.83
12	W3 · CAR @ CLE	RBQuinshon Judkins	Rush att	16.5	Under	−125.5	missedactual 18	−1.00
21	W3 · CIN @ PIT	RBJaylen Warren	Rush att	15.5	Under	−127.5	missedactual 17	−1.00
23	W3 · CIN @ PIT	RBChase Brown	Rush att	16.5	Under	−128	clearedactual 13	+0.78
30	W3 · HOU @ IND	RBDavid Montgomery	Rush att	12.5	Under	−120.5	clearedactual 11	+0.83
32	W3 · HOU @ IND	RBJonathan Taylor	Rush att	18.5	Under	−101	missedactual 23	−1.00
42	W3 · KC @ MIA	QBPatrick Mahomes	Rush att	3.5	Under	+107	clearedactual 1	+1.07
45	W3 · KC @ MIA	QBMalik Willis	Rush att	5.5	Under	+119	missedactual 9	−1.00
47	W3 · KC @ MIA	RBKenneth Walker III	Rush att	17.5	Under	−119	missedactual 18	−1.00
49	W3 · KC @ MIA	RBDe'Von Achane	Rush att	15.5	Under	−101	clearedactual 3	+0.99
57	W3 · LAC @ BUF	QBJosh Allen	Rush att	7.5	Under	+108	missedactual 8	−1.00
63	W3 · LAC @ BUF	RBOmarion Hampton	Rush att	15.5	Under	−122	clearedactual 15	+0.82
67	W3 · NE @ JAX	RBRhamondre Stevenson	Rush att	8.5	Under	+105	clearedactual 7	+1.05
71	W3 · NE @ JAX	QBDrake Maye	Rush att	5.5	Under	+107	clearedactual 4	+1.07
73	W3 · NE @ JAX	RBBhayshul Tuten	Rush att	12.5	Under	+101	missedactual 15	−1.00
81	W3 · NYJ @ DET	RBJahmyr Gibbs	Rush att	18.5	Under	−107	missedactual 20	−1.00
90	W3 · SEA @ WAS	RBJadarian Price	Rush att	13.5	Under	−119	clearedactual 5	+0.84
99	W3 · TEN @ NYG	RBCam Skattebo	Rush att	15.5	Under	−109	missedactual 20	−1.00
105	W3 · ARI @ SF	RBJeremiyah Love	Rush att	11.5	Under	−132	missedactual 21	−1.00
119	W3 · BAL @ DAL	RBDerrick Henry	Rush att	18.5	Under	−121	missedactual 26	−1.00
120	W3 · BAL @ DAL	QBDak Prescott	Rush att	3.5	Under	−139	missedactual 4	−1.00
122	W3 · BAL @ DAL	QBLamar Jackson	Rush att	6.5	Under	−148	clearedactual 6	+0.68
133	W3 · LV @ NO	RBAshton Jeanty	Rush att	17.5	Under	+102	missedactual 19	−1.00
139	W3 · LA @ DEN	QBBo Nix	Rush att	4.5	Under	+105	clearedactual 4	+1.05
140	W3 · LA @ DEN	RBBlake Corum	Rush att	11.5	Under	−114	clearedactual 6	+0.88
144	W3 · PHI @ CHI	RBSaquon Barkley	Rush att	17.5	Under	−120	clearedactual 15	+0.83
146	W3 · PHI @ CHI	RBD'Andre Swift	Rush att	14.5	Under	−117	missedactual 20	−1.00
147	W3 · PHI @ CHI	QBJalen Hurts	Rush att	6.5	Under	−129	clearedactual 4	+0.78
154	W3 · CIN @ PIT	RBChase Brown	Rush att	15.5	Under	−104.5	clearedactual 13	+0.96
156	W3 · HOU @ IND	QBDaniel Jones	Rush att	3.5	Under	−111	clearedactual 3	+0.90
157	W3 · HOU @ IND	RBJonathan Taylor	Rush att	19.5	Under	−128	missedactual 23	−1.00
158	W3 · KC @ MIA	QBMalik Willis	Rush att	6.5	Under	−152	missedactual 9	−1.00
159	W3 · KC @ MIA	RBEmmett Johnson	Rush att	6.5	Under	+100	clearedactual 6	+1.00
160	W3 · LAC @ BUF	RBJames Cook	Rush att	17.5	Under	−123	missedactual 24	−1.00
173	W3 · TEN @ NYG	RBTony Pollard	Rush att	15.5	Under	−105	missedactual 17	−1.00
179	W3 · MIN @ TB	RBAaron Jones	Rush att	13.5	Under	−127	missedactual 17	−1.00
198	W3 · PHI @ CHI	RBKyle Monangai	Rush att	9.5	Under	−108.5	missedactual 10	−1.00
199	W3 · PHI @ CHI	RBD'Andre Swift	Rush att	15.5	Under	−130	missedactual 20	−1.00
206	W4 · PIT @ CLE	RBJaylen Warren	Rush att	15.5	Under	−118	missedactual 17	−1.00
209	W4 · PIT @ CLE	RBQuinshon Judkins	Rush att	16.5	Under	−110	missedactual 17	−1.00
212	W4 · PIT @ CLE	QBDeshaun Watson	Rush att	5.5	Under	+113	missedactual 7	−1.00
213	W4 · PIT @ CLE	RBJaylen Warren	Rush att	16.5	Under	+101	missedactual 17	−1.00
216	W4 · PIT @ CLE	RBJaylen Warren	Rush att	17.5	Under	−122	clearedactual 17	+0.82
221	W4 · IND @ WAS	QBMarcus Mariota	Rush att	5.5	Under	−137	clearedactual 1	+0.73
224	W4 · IND @ WAS	QBDaniel Jones	Rush att	3.5	Under	−141	missedactual 4	−1.00
226	W4 · IND @ WAS	RBJonathan Taylor	Rush att	20.5	Under	−120	clearedactual 20	+0.83
229	W4 · IND @ WAS	RBJacory Croskey-Merritt	Rush att	13.5	Under	−107	clearedactual 9	+0.93
238	W4 · ARI @ NYG	RBCam Skattebo	Rush att	16.5	Under	−129.5	missedactual 18	−1.00
240	W4 · ARI @ NYG	RBJeremiyah Love	Rush att	15.5	Under	−2.5not a valid price	clearedactual 14	—
242	W4 · DAL @ HOU	QBDak Prescott	Rush att	2.5	Under	+126	clearedactual 2	+1.26
244	W4 · DAL @ HOU	RBDavid Montgomery	Rush att	11.5	Under	−101	clearedactual 10	+0.99
248	W4 · DAL @ HOU	RBJavonte Williams	Rush att	15.5	Under	−111	missedactual 19	−1.00
252	W4 · DAL @ HOU	QBC.J. Stroud	Rush att	3.5	Under	−130	clearedactual 2	+0.77
266	W4 · GB @ TB	RBKaleb Johnson	Rush att	8.5	Under	−111	clearedactual 8	+0.90
268	W4 · GB @ TB	QBJalon Daniels	Rush att	6.5	Under	+113	missedactual 8	−1.00
272	W4 · JAX @ CIN	RBChase Brown	Rush att	16.5	Under	−103	clearedactual 9	+0.97
276	W4 · JAX @ CIN	RBBhayshul Tuten	Rush att	12.5	Under	+102	missedactual 17	−1.00
282	W4 · LA @ PHI	RBSaquon Barkley	Rush att	17.5	Under	−108	clearedactual 2	+0.93
283	W4 · LA @ PHI	QBJalen Hurts	Rush att	6.5	Under	−145	clearedactual 5	+0.69
288	W4 · LA @ PHI	RBBlake Corum	Rush att	9.5	Under	−115	clearedactual 5	+0.87
292	W4 · NE @ BUF	QBJosh Allen	Rush att	7.5	Under	+105	clearedactual 5	+1.05
295	W4 · NE @ BUF	RBJames Cook	Rush att	17.5	Under	−102	clearedactual 12	+0.98
298	W4 · NE @ BUF	QBDrake Maye	Rush att	5.5	Under	−117	missedactual 8	−1.00
302	W4 · NYJ @ CHI	RBD'Andre Swift	Rush att	16.5	Under	−124	clearedactual 15	+0.81
307	W4 · NYJ @ CHI	RBBraelon Allen	Rush att	14.5	Under	−126	clearedactual 14	+0.79
312	W4 · NYJ @ CHI	RBKyle Monangai	Rush att	9.5	Under	−132	missedactual 30	−1.00
315	W4 · TEN @ BAL	RBDerrick Henry	Rush att	19.5	Under	−107	missedactual 23	−1.00
317	W4 · TEN @ BAL	QBLamar Jackson	Rush att	6.5	Under	+100	clearedactual 2	+1.00
326	W4 · MIA @ MIN	RBAaron Jones	Rush att	17.5	Under	−126	missedactual 20	−1.00
327	W4 · MIA @ MIN	QBKyler Murray	Rush att	4.5	Under	+122	missedactual 6	−1.00
328	W4 · MIA @ MIN	QBMalik Willis	Rush att	6.5	Under	−139	clearedactual 2	+0.72
330	W4 · MIA @ MIN	RBJaylen Wright	Rush att	7.5	Under	−144	clearedactual 5	+0.69
338	W4 · DEN @ SF	QBBrock Purdy	Rush att	4.5	Under	−149	missedactual 10	−1.00
339	W4 · DEN @ SF	QBBo Nix	Rush att	4.5	Under	−105	clearedactual 2	+0.95
345	W4 · KC @ LV	RBKenneth Walker III	Rush att	18.5	Under	−120	missedactual 22	−1.00
351	W4 · KC @ LV	RBAshton Jeanty	Rush att	17.5	Under	−125	clearedactual 15	+0.80
352	W4 · KC @ LV	RBMike Washington Jr.	Rush att	4.5	Under	+105	voidmarket pulled	—
355	W4 · LAC @ SEA	QBJustin Herbert	Rush att	4.5	Under	−121	missedactual 6	−1.00
364	W4 · PIT @ CLE	QBDeshaun Watson	Rush att	6.5	Under	−145	missedactual 7	−1.00
367	W4 · DET @ CAR	RBChuba Hubbard	Rush att	16.5	Under	−112.5	missedactual 20	−1.00
372	W4 · DET @ CAR	RBJahmyr Gibbs	Rush att	19.5	Under	−111	clearedactual 15	+0.90
373	W4 · DET @ CAR	QBBryce Young	Rush att	2.5	Under	+108	missedactual 3	−1.00
387	W4 · ATL @ NO	RBBijan Robinson	Rush att	19.5	Under	−121	clearedactual 19	+0.83
391	W4 · IND @ WAS	RBJacory Croskey-Merritt	Rush att	14.5	Under	−113	clearedactual 9	+0.89
396	W4 · ARI @ NYG	RBJeremiyah Love	Rush att	16.5	Under	−135	clearedactual 14	+0.74
398	W4 · DAL @ HOU	RBDavid Montgomery	Rush att	12.5	Under	−122	clearedactual 10	+0.82
402	W4 · GB @ TB	RBKaleb Johnson	Rush att	9.5	Under	−137	clearedactual 8	+0.73
405	W4 · JAX @ CIN	RBChase Brown	Rush att	15.5	Under	−120.5	clearedactual 9	+0.83
408	W4 · LA @ PHI	RBSaquon Barkley	Rush att	16.5	Under	−105	clearedactual 2	+0.95
416	W4 · NYJ @ CHI	RBD'Andre Swift	Rush att	14.5	Under	−8.5not a valid price	missedactual 15	—
417	W4 · NYJ @ CHI	RBBraelon Allen	Rush att	13.5	Under	+101	missedactual 14	−1.00
420	W4 · TEN @ BAL	RBDerrick Henry	Rush att	21.5	Under	−121	missedactual 23	−1.00
421	W4 · TEN @ BAL	QBLamar Jackson	Rush att	5.5	Under	+108	clearedactual 2	+1.08
423	W4 · TEN @ BAL	RBJustice Hill	Rush att	4.5	Under	−110	clearedactual 1	+0.91
428	W4 · MIA @ MIN	RBAaron Jones	Rush att	16.5	Under	−1not a valid price	missedactual 20	—
434	W4 · MIA @ MIN	RBJaylen Wright	Rush att	8.5	Under	−113.5	clearedactual 5	+0.88
438	W4 · MIA @ MIN	RBOllie Gordon II	Rush att	7.5	Under	−141	missedactual 9	−1.00
443	W4 · KC @ LV	RBAshton Jeanty	Rush att	16.5	Under	−112.5	clearedactual 15	+0.89

Showing 1–100 of 286 matching of 1,279 leans · 2,549 rows in the ledgerSorted oldest first · filters narrow the list, never the total

Show all 1,279

All 1,279 leans this season and every event, with prices and timestamps (CSV) · the same rows (parquet). Each row is one lean as the ledger has it: published at a read, then graded once on the line it was published at, or voided with a reason. A lean whose line later moved, or whose game has not been played, is still here.

Rows in the ledger

2,549 rows in the ledger, and the hash chain, recomputed here over every one of them, holds.

Rows in the ledger, by week: a running count

400

1,024

1,534

2,054

2,540

2,549

Rows are events: a lean is published once and graded or voided once, so it is one row or two. Week 3: 400 rows, 200 leans published · Week 4: 624 rows, 312 leans published · Week 5: 510 rows, 255 leans published · Week 6: 520 rows, 260 leans published · Week 7: 486 rows, 243 leans published · Week 8: 9 rows, 9 leans published. A running count read from one file cannot go down and cannot show a row taken out before the file was read, so it is a count here, not a proof.

The chain head

#2,549fab2…c739← e840…f36d
#2,548e840…f36d← 70b2…c655
#2,54770b2…c655← cd86…29fe
#2,546cd86…29fe← 6720…6a46

Recomputed here: every row’s hash is the SHA-256 of its 25 cells and the previous row’s hash, so editing or removing a row breaks every hash after it. Rows cut from the end leave a chain that still holds; only a head recorded before the cut catches that. The head is fab2bc85f6cb4b63dc640bd548e6eeab5ee864ac33eb987845d37d180d3dc739 - keep it, and check it against the next one.

Week 4’s index publishes row #1,024’s hash as 85a9…1844: this file's row #1,024 carries the same.
Week 5’s index publishes row #1,534’s hash as c58b…5471: this file's row #1,534 carries the same.
Week 6’s index publishes row #2,054’s hash as f713…37c3: this file's row #2,054 carries the same.
Week 7’s index publishes row #2,540’s hash as 95c9…1855: this file's row #2,540 carries the same.
Week 8’s index publishes row #2,549’s hash as fab2…c739: this file's row #2,549 carries the same.

Pushes and voids

0 pushes and 36 voids so far. Each stays on the record; neither counts toward the hit rate.

W3 · CAR @ CLEvoid

WRXavier Legette

Rec 1.5 · over

Void: inactive

W3 · NYJ @ DETvoid

WRAdonai Mitchell

Rec 3.5 · under

Void: inactive

W3 · BAL @ DALvoid

WRChris Moore

Rec 1.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W3 · BAL @ DALvoid

WRLaJohntay Wester

Rec 2.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W3 · HOU @ INDvoid

WRDarius Slayton

Rec 1.5 · over

Void: inactive

W3 · TEN @ NYGvoid

RBDevin Singletary

Rec 1.5 · under

Void: inactive

W4 · IND @ WASvoid

WRKeenan Allen

Rec 3.5 · over

Void: market pulled

W4 · IND @ WASvoid

WRStefon Diggs

Rec 4.5 · over

Void: market pulled

W4 · IND @ WASvoid

WRTerry McLaurin

Rec 4.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W4 · IND @ WASvoid

WRAntonio Williams

Rec 1.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W4 · LA @ PHIvoid

WRDeVonta Smith

Rec 5.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W4 · KC @ LVvoid

RBMike Washington Jr.

Rush att 4.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W4 · LAC @ SEAvoid

RBJadarian Price

Rec 1.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W4 · DET @ CARvoid

WRJalen Coker

Rec 4.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W4 · IND @ WASvoid

WRDarius Slayton

Rec 1.5 · over

Void: market pulled

W4 · ATL @ NOvoid

TENoah Fant

Rec 1.5 · over

Void: market pulled

W5 · LV @ NEvoid

RBAshton Jeanty

Rec 3.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W5 · LV @ NEvoid

RBAshton Jeanty

Rush att 16.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W5 · CHI @ GBvoid

RBKyle Monangai

Rush att 11.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W5 · DET @ ARIvoid

WRMarvin Harrison Jr.

Rec 2.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W5 · BUF @ LAvoid

WRJosh Palmer

Rec 1.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W5 · LV @ NEvoid

TEIan Thomas

Rec 0.5 · over

Void: market pulled

W5 · MIN @ NOvoid

WRJordan Addison

Rec 3.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W5 · DEN @ LACvoid

WRLadd McConkey

Rec 3.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W6 · TEN @ INDvoid

RBTyjae Spears

Rec 2.5 · over

Void: market pulled

W6 · TEN @ INDvoid

TETyler Warren

Rec 5.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W6 · BUF @ LVvoid

WRDJ Moore

Rec 3.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W6 · BAL @ CLEvoid

RBQuinshon Judkins

Rec 2.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W7 · LA @ LVvoid

TETyler Higbee

Rec 4.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W7 · LA @ LVvoid

WRPuka Nacua

Rec 8.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W7 · LA @ LVvoid

WRJordan Whittington

Rec 0.5 · over

Void: market pulled

W7 · LA @ LVvoid

WRKonata Mumpfield

Rec 1.5 · under

Void: market pulled

W7 · CLE @ TENvoid

WRCalvin Ridley

Rec 0.5 · over

Void: market pulled

W7 · CLE @ TENvoid

RBTyjae Spears

Rec 2.5 · over

Void: market pulled

W7 · SF @ ATLvoid

WROlamide Zaccheaus

Rec 1.5 · over

Void: market pulled

W7 · TB @ CARvoid

RBAJ Dillon

Rush att 3.5 · under

Void: market pulled

By market

Receptions carry most of the leans: 943 of 1,279.

Market	Leans	Cleared · missed	Hit rate · 95%	Against 52.4%
Receptions	943	478–425	52.9% 49.7–56.2	contains 52.4%
Rush attempts	336	185–146	55.9% 50.5–61.1	contains 52.4%

By market and lean size

5 of 5 intervals contain 52.4%, the break-even at −110; 0 sit wholly under it; 0 sit wholly over it. 1 cell has no interval: fewer than 30 leans that cleared or missed.

Market	Gap	n	Cleared	95%
Receptions	4–6 pp	122	46%	37%–55%
Receptions	6–8 pp	83	46%	35%–56%
Receptions	8+ pp	698	55%	51%–59%
Rush attempts	4–6 pp	36	39%	25%–55%
Rush attempts	6–8 pp	20	—	pending
Rush attempts	8+ pp	275	58%	52%–64%

The size is the producer’s own band on each lean: the gap between the model’s probability and the market’s, in probability points, when the lean was published. A rate is shown where a market, or a market and size, has at least 30 leans that cleared or missed; a push is neither and is counted apart. The interval is Wilson’s, 95%, and it treats every lean as independent. Leans in one game are not, so the real uncertainty is wider than the interval drawn.

How the model scores against the market

Walk-forward Brier(model) - Brier(close), 2025

0.0195

95% 0.0144 to 0.0253 · n 6,031 outcomes

The model scored worse than the de-vigged sportsbook close, over 284 games (the board index’s copy, which agrees with the registry).

research/hypotheses.json · hypotheses[id=R15].estimate

Brier(model) - Brier(Kalshi mid), week 1

0.0142

95% 0.0007 to 0.0263 · n 925 predictions · 14 games

The model scored worse than the Kalshi mid.

research/calibration.json · brier.model_minus_market.estimate

Restatement note, from the metric registry

R10 is the 2026-09-17 restatement on n=706 (229 books one-sided at entry); research/calibration.json now scores n=935 because the Kalshi candle backfill supplies a two-sided entry quote for every prediction. Unresolved: which entry quote is correct (a-36). (research/hypotheses.json · hypotheses[id=R10].estimate, not printed here)

What a lean is

The side the model’s probability sits on, when it differs from the market’s de-vigged price by 4 points or more at the read that publishes it. In the board’s own words: over at gap >= +T, under at gap <= -T.

What it is not

A recommendation, or a claim that the model knows something the market does not. It is published so it can be graded, not because disagreeing has paid. Walk-forward, the model scored worse than the de-vigged sportsbook close (95% interval for the Brier difference 0.0144 to 0.0253).

What would change the verdict

A season whose walk-forward interval for Brier(model) − Brier(close) lies wholly under zero. On this page, a record whose 95% interval lies wholly over the −110 break-even. Each is where an interval sits, computed from the files, so either sentence above would change on its own.

Not a sportsbook · no wagers accepted · nothing here is advice · board/nfl/ledger.csv and board/nfl/ledger.parquet: 2,549 rows each, identical row for row · board indexes for week 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 of 2026 · model baseline-usage-0.4+03571d4710af